The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay
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<html> <head> <title>TNS vs Colwyn Bay Betting Preview and Odds</title> <meta name="description" content="Expert preview for The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay in the Cymru Premier with stats, odds and betting angles." /> </head> <body> <h2>TNS v Colwyn Bay: Leaders set the tempo at Park Hall</h2> <p>League leaders The New Saints welcome fifth-placed Colwyn Bay to Park Hall on January 13, with TNS looking to press home their advantage at the summit. The form and numbers strongly lean green-and-white, while the market offers a few angles that still look generous.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>TNS sit atop the Cymru Premier with 50 points from 21, while Colwyn Bay are mid-table on 30. Recent sentiment underscores TNS dominance in the head-to-heads and at Park Hall, despite a rare 1-1 in the last meeting. TNS bounced back from a December 31 defeat at Connah’s Quay with a 2-1 win over Bala Town, maintaining their pace. Colwyn Bay edged Caernarfon 2-1 away before a 1-2 home loss to Flint.</p> <h3>Venue Dynamics and Scoring Patterns</h3> <p>Park Hall is a driver of TNS outputs: 8 wins in 10, averaging 3.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded. Their home games land over 2.5 at a 90% clip and over 3.5 at 60%, with 68% of their home goals coming after the interval. Colwyn Bay’s away profile is lower scoring (1.90 total per game), but the mismatch in attacking quality often shifts totals upward in Oswestry.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>TNS control tempo early (80% score first at home) and are ruthless when ahead (lead-defending rate 80%). Their chance creation spreads across multiple threats—recent goals from Jordan Williams, Ryan Brobbel, and Ben Clark highlight how hard they are to contain. Colwyn Bay’s away equalizing rate is 0%; once they fall behind, they struggle to alter the game state. Expect TNS to assert pressure early and amplify it after halftime, where their late-running patterns routinely overwhelm visitors.</p> <h3>Situational Metrics</h3> <ul> <li>TNS PPG when scoring first: 2.88; opponent scores first only 14% overall.</li> <li>Colwyn Bay PPG when conceding first away: 0.00; equalizing rate away: 0%.</li> <li>TNS home BTTS: 40%; home clean sheets: 50%.</li> </ul> <p>These figures favor TNS handicap lines and clean-sheet derived markets. They also support second-half goal angles, given TNS’s late push and Bay’s difficulty chasing games on the road.</p> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <ul> <li>Team Total Over 2.5 (1.73): TNS have scored 2+ in 9 of 10 home league matches and average 3.40 GF at Park Hall—this number looks friendly.</li> <li>Win to Nil (2.10): With 50% home clean sheets and Bay failing to score in 40% of away games, the price outstrips the combined probabilities.</li> <li>Second Half Over 1.5 (1.62): TNS home second halves average 3.0 total goals; odds imply ~62%, projection closer to 70%.</li> <li>Handicap -1.5 (1.60): Multiple two-goal home wins and Bay’s 0% away equalizing rate back a margin.</li> <li>BTTS No (1.83): Park Hall BTTS only 40%; looks modestly undervalued.</li> </ul> <h3>Risks and Counters</h3> <p>Two caution flags: TNS’s last eight show a small uptick in goals against, and Colwyn Bay’s away GA (0.80) is robust. That said, TNS are a league outlier in chance creation and scoring, and Bay’s inability to claw back away from home blunts the upset or close-game scenarios.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>TNS’s combination of early control, sustained second-half pressure, and defensive reliability at Park Hall makes them a strong favorite to win by margin and keep things relatively one-sided. The sharpest portfolio tilts toward team total over 2.5, a clean-sheet-derived angle, and second-half goals—each aligned with TNS’s most repeatable traits.</p> </body> </html>
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