Penybont vs Haverfordwest County AFC
Match Information
Match Preview
<html> <head> <title>Penybont vs Haverfordwest County AFC – Match Preview, Odds and Analysis</title> </head> <body> <h2>Form and Context</h2> <p>Penybont enter this fixture second in the Cymru Premier table and trending upward: unbeaten in six, with three straight clean sheets and a defensive record that has improved markedly over their last eight (0.25 GA per game vs 0.55 season average). Haverfordwest arrive 11th, off a morale-boosting 3-1 home win against Flint but still carrying severe away issues: 0.75 PPG on the road, 0.25 goals scored per away match, and 75% of away matches without a goal.</p> <h2>Venue Splits and Tactical Picture</h2> <p>Penybont’s strength at home is their structure. They concede just 0.60 per game at home and defend leads ruthlessly (100% lead-defending rate at home). Their scoring pattern at home leans to the first half (62% of goals), which dovetails with Haverfordwest’s vulnerability: the visitors concede their first away goal on average by the 14th minute and have trailed at half-time in 75% of away games.</p> <p>Expect Penybont to press early and control central zones with Mael Davies dictating tempo and James Crole/Noah Daley stretching the back line. Haverfordwest will be reliant on set pieces and counter moments through the likes of Ben Ahmun and Rhys Abbruzzese, but their away metrics suggest long spells without penetration.</p> <h2>Key Numbers to Know</h2> <ul> <li>Penybont home clean sheets: 60%; BTTS at home: 0%.</li> <li>Haverfordwest away failed to score: 75%; BTTS away: 0%.</li> <li>Penybont lead-defending rate: 88% overall, 100% at home.</li> <li>Half-time trend: Penybont leading at HT 60% (home), Haverfordwest losing at HT 75% (away).</li> </ul> <h2>Odds and Value Angles</h2> <p>Market prices show some misalignments with the data. “Both Teams to Score – No” at 1.92 offers a strong edge given the 0% BTTS at this venue split for both teams to date and the visitors’ 75% away FTS. The pure “Away Team Under 0.5 Goals” is even punchier at 2.32, reflecting an implied probability much lower than the on-field reality. For results-driven punters, “Penybont & Under 3.5” at 2.38 captures the home team’s tendency to win to nil in lower-total matches, while the “First Half Winner – Penybont” at 2.11 is supported by the converging half-time trends.</p> <h2>Players and Matchups to Watch</h2> <p>For Penybont, James Crole’s recent scoring run (including a hat-trick vs Cardiff MU) and Noah Daley’s double vs Flint/decisive goals at Caernarfon signal reliable end-product. Mael Davies has chipped in key goals and offers off-ball control. Haverfordwest’s brightest sparks have been at home; away, they’ve mustered one late goal all season. The challenge will be to find consistent service in the final third against one of the league’s stingiest defensive units.</p> <h2>Weather and Conditions</h2> <p>A cool, possibly drizzly evening (11–13°C) could slow the pitch, favouring Penybont’s compactness and making transitions harder for the visitors. That further tilts the game toward a controlled home performance with limited chaos.</p> <h2>Risk Factors and What Could Change It</h2> <p>The principal red flag for heavy home-goals bets is Penybont’s occasional home bluntness (40% failed to score at home). If they start slowly and allow Haverfordwest to ride out early pressure, totals could stay very low, keeping 1-0/2-0 most likely. Conversely, Haverfordwest’s only away goal arrived late (76–90); a set-piece or deflection could bust “Away Under 0.5,” though the broader trend still favors home control.</p> <h2>Prediction</h2> <p>With the venue splits and form pointing strongly in one direction, the likeliest outcome is a controlled Penybont win without conceding. The numbers support a low-to-middling total and a home advantage established by half-time.</p> <p><strong>Projected score:</strong> Penybont 1–0 (secondary: 2–0). Best prices: BTTS No (1.92), Haverfordwest Under 0.5 (2.32), HT Penybont (2.11), Penybont & Under 3.5 (2.38).</p> </body> </html>
Betting Odds
Odds are currently unavailable.
Odds are provided for informational purposes. Please gamble responsibly.
AI Analysis & Predictions
Get comprehensive AI-powered analysis for this match with our advanced prediction models. Our AI considers team form, head-to-head records, player statistics, and real-time data to provide accurate insights.
- Real-time match predictions
- In-depth statistical analysis
- Live odds monitoring
- Expert betting insights