Sporting Gijon vs FC Andorra
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<html> <head> <title>Sporting Gijón vs FC Andorra – Betting Preview and Analysis</title> <meta charset="utf-8" /> </head> <body> <h2>Sporting Gijón vs FC Andorra: Data-Driven Betting Preview</h2> <p>Date: 28 November 2025, 19:30 UTC | Venue: El Molinón</p> <h3>Context and Stakes</h3> <p>Sporting Gijón and FC Andorra meet in Gijón with both sides needing a course correction. Sporting sit mid-table and lean on their home form to steady a four-match winless spell. Andorra arrive 19th, winless in eight, in urgent need of a response away from home.</p> <h3>Team News and Tactical Notes</h3> <p>Sporting are dealing with key absences: <strong>Gaspar Campos</strong> (shoulder) and <strong>Juan Otero</strong> (hamstring) are expected to miss out, dulling some of their threat from wide and in transition. The expectation remains a 4-2-3-1, with <strong>Jonathan Dubasin</strong> the focal point and <strong>César Gelabert</strong> providing connection play between lines.</p> <p>Andorra report no major absences and should line up compact in a 4-4-2/4-3-3 hybrid, looking to frustrate and spring forward through the dribbling of <strong>Min-su Kim</strong> and the support running of <strong>Dani Villahermosa</strong>.</p> <h3>Form and Momentum</h3> <p>Sporting’s last eight show stabilizing defense (1.38 GA vs 1.47 season) and a steady 1.38 PPG. The lack of a cutting edge without Otero and Campos has reduced their ceiling. Nevertheless, at El Molinón they’ve been robust: 1.75 PPG and an 80% lead-defense rate.</p> <p>Andorra’s trajectory is stark: winless in eight with 0.38 PPG over that run, and a concerning swing in metrics—goals for -44%, goals against +23%. Away from home they concede 1.88 per game and haven’t kept a clean sheet.</p> <h3>Key Matchup Dynamics</h3> <p>Two angles define this contest:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Second-half pattern:</strong> Andorra’s away second-half concession rate is severe (12 conceded after the break vs 3 before). Sporting’s measured home control should tell late on.</li> <li><strong>Game state management:</strong> When Andorra concede first away, they average just 0.20 PPG and equalize in only 20%—contrasting with Sporting’s 80% home lead defense and 1.33 PPG even when conceding first at home.</li> </ul> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <p><strong>Sporting:</strong> Jonathan Dubasin (7 goals) is central: penalty duty, smart movement, and now elevated usage with Otero/Campos sidelined. Gelabert’s line-breaking passing (22 key passes) helps unlock compact blocks. The Perrin–Pablo Vázquez pairing has been dependable in aerials and blocks.</p> <p><strong>Andorra:</strong> Min-su Kim (4G, 3A) is in form, scoring on 22 Nov and 8 Nov, while Villahermosa (4G) times late runs from midfield. Fullbacks Imanol García de Albéniz and Bombardó add progressive passing but can leave space if forced deep.</p> <h3>Weather and Pace</h3> <p>Cloudy with light rain (12°C) points to a slightly slower, more error-prone surface. That generally favors the better game-state managers—here, Sporting at home.</p> <h3>Betting Edge and Value</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Sporting to win (2.00):</strong> The price implies a 50% chance—The Oracle rates this closer to 53–55% given home metrics and Andorra’s poor away equalizing.</li> <li><strong>Second Half Winner – Sporting (2.38):</strong> Backed by Andorra’s dramatic second-half decline on the road (12 GA after HT), this is a standout value angle.</li> <li><strong>Clean Sheet – Sporting (2.50):</strong> Sporting’s 38% home CS aligns with Andorra’s 38% away FTS; with Andorra’s poor away equalizing, the price is attractive.</li> <li><strong>Over 9.5 Corners (2.00):</strong> Sporting home games hit 9.5+ corners 75% of the time; evens looks generous even considering attacking absences.</li> <li><strong>Dubasin anytime (3.10):</strong> Primary scorer and penalty taker at an above-fair quote against a defense conceding 1.88 away.</li> </ul> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Sporting Gijón 1–0 FC Andorra. The hosts’ structure, home resilience, and Andorra’s second-half slippage swing the balance. A narrow home win with late control is the likeliest script.</p> </body> </html>
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