Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II

<div> <h2>Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II: Tactical Chess on a Tight Margin</h2> <p>Las Palmas welcome Real Sociedad II to Gran Canaria with both teams level on five points after four matchdays. The story so far points toward tight margins, low volatility, and a contest decided by one or two key moments—especially late on.</p> <h3>Team News and Selection</h3> <p>Las Palmas are dealing with attacking absences: Sandro Ramírez remains sidelined, and the club’s broader fitness picture is still short of peak. The likely shape is a 4-3-3 featuring Dinko Horkaš in goal; a back four of Marvin Park, Sergio Barcia, Mika Màrmol, and Enrique Clemente; a combative, mobile midfield with Lorenzo Amatucci and Enzo Loiodice orchestrating alongside Manuel Fuster; and a front three led by Milos Luković and the in-form Ale García, with Marc Cardona’s experience.</p> <p>For Real Sociedad II, defender Iñaki Rupérez is out, but most of their youthful core is available. Expect Aitor Fraga—an early standout with 12 saves in three—to start in goal behind Luken Beitia and Peru Rodríguez. In attack, Gorka Carrera’s recent scoring contributions and Job Ochieng’s box-arrival threat headline a nimble forward unit. The questions lie less in flair, more in away output.</p> <h3>Form and Flow</h3> <p>Las Palmas’ two home games have delivered an aggregate of just two goals (1-1 vs FC Andorra, 0-1 vs Málaga). They dominate spells of possession without consistently converting. On the road, however, they’ve looked controlled and resolute, taking four points from two with just one goal conceded.</p> <p>Real Sociedad II are a different beast home vs away. At Zubieta, they’ve been chaotic entertainment—1-0, 2-2, and 3-3—scoring freely but yielding late. Away, the sample is small yet telling: a 1-0 loss at Málaga with zero goals scored and a late concession (86’). Those splits map onto the market: their away BTTS is 0%, and their away total-goal profile (1.00 per game) screams caution.</p> <h3>Key Matchups</h3> <ul> <li>Ale García vs RS II full-backs: García’s 2 goals in 3 and willingness to attack early spaces dovetail with Las Palmas’ habit of quick starts (average first goal 14’).</li> <li>Manuel Fuster between the lines: 2 assists already; he supplies the final pass that Las Palmas often need to break stubborn blocks.</li> <li>Aitor Fraga vs Las Palmas’ finishing: RS II’s keeper is in strong shot-stopping form. If Las Palmas again lack a clinical edge without Sandro, Fraga can keep this close.</li> </ul> <h3>Where the Odds Meet the Data</h3> <p>The prices favor Las Palmas (1.51 ML), but the more interesting edges sit in the totals. Under 2.5 at 1.80 aligns with 100% of Las Palmas’ home games and 100% of RS II’s away games so far, with RS II having failed to score on the road. The combination “Las Palmas & Under 3.5” at 2.15 allows for a professional home job (1-0, 2-0, 2-1) in a league that often compresses early-season scoring.</p> <p>Second-half angles tilt the hosts’ way. RS II have conceded four times in the 76–90 segment; their Málaga defeat happened in minute 86. Las Palmas at 1.85 to win the second half prices in those late defensive cracks without forcing you to pick an outright HT scenario.</p> <h3>Tactical Expectation</h3> <p>Las Palmas will circulate and probe with Amatucci and Loiodice dictating tempo and Fuster feeding the wide forwards. RS II will look to break and counter, relying on Carrera’s movement and Ochieng’s timing to reach cutbacks. The visitors’ issue is sustaining those attacking moments away from home; support runs and final-third numbers tend to dip outside Zubieta.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>A measured, low-scoring match in which Las Palmas’ control and the visitors’ away-production drought pull the game toward a narrow home result. With RS II’s propensity to wobble late, the decisive moment might again come after the hour.</p> <p><strong>Lean:</strong> Las Palmas 1-0.</p> <h3>Best Bets Recap</h3> <ul> <li>Under 2.5 Goals (1.80) – strongest data fit.</li> <li>Las Palmas & Under 3.5 (2.15) – sensible combo in Segunda scoring context.</li> <li>Second Half Winner: Las Palmas (1.85) – RS II late concessions trend.</li> <li>Real Sociedad II Under 0.5 Goals (2.00) – away FTS trend supports the price.</li> </ul> </div>