Granada CF vs Las Palmas
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<html> <head> <title>Granada CF vs Las Palmas – Segunda División Preview, Odds and Analysis</title> </head> <body> <h2>Match Context</h2> <p>Nuevo Los Cármenes hosts a sharp stylistic clash: Granada’s high-variance home profile meets Las Palmas’ compact, control-first road game. Granada enter 18th with volatile form—capable of a 5-2 home win over Real Sociedad B, yet prone to lapses and big concessions. Las Palmas sit in the top five on early points, built on outstanding defensive numbers, especially away from Gran Canaria.</p> <h2>Form and Trajectory</h2> <p>Granada’s last two results (5-2 vs Real Sociedad B, 1-0 at Huesca) suggest a short-term uptick, but their season averages remain middling: 1.00 ppg overall, 0.75 ppg at home with 2.25 GA per home game. Las Palmas are steadier: 1.75 ppg overall, 2.33 ppg away, and unbeaten on the road. The key contrast is game-state management: Las Palmas lead more minutes and trail far less than league norms; Granada spend 33% of time trailing and struggle to recover if they fall behind.</p> <h2>Venue-Specific Dynamics</h2> <p>Segunda’s home edge is real, but Granada’s home performance is below par (3 points from 4). Their matches here have been wild, yet a large share of that is inflated by one outlier (the 5-2). Las Palmas, by contrast, travel superbly: 0.33 GA per away match, 67% away clean sheets, and 100% success defending a lead.</p> <h2>Goal Timing and Flow</h2> <p>Granada have an early-surge tendency at home (rapid early goals in one blowout), but in aggregate they’ve scored first at home just 25% of the time and concede the bulk of goals after halftime (67% of home GA). Las Palmas’ attack skews later away from home, with 75% of their away goals scored after the break and a strong 46–60 minute punch. This tilts the “highest scoring half” market toward the second period.</p> <h2>Tactical Matchup</h2> <p>Expect Las Palmas to cage the center with Lorenzo Amatucci and Enzo Loiodice controlling tempo and pressing triggers. Mika Màrmol and Sergio Barcia anchor a back line that has been excellent defending the box and set pieces. Granada’s best route is direct pressure and quick wide switches to disrupt Las Palmas’ shape, but if they concede first, their metrics nosedive (0.20 ppg overall when conceding first; 0.00 ppg at home).</p> <h2>Key Players</h2> <p>For Las Palmas, Ale García is the form finisher (3 goals), dangerous attacking half-spaces and late runs—fitting the away team’s later-scoring pattern. Veteran Jonathan Viera offers control and shot creation if used from the bench or as a starter. Goalkeeper Dinko Horkaš has conceded just five in eight, with 67% away clean sheets underpinning their value angles.</p> <p>For Granada, Martin Hongla’s ball winning and Sergio Ruiz’s two-way energy are vital to prevent transitions. In the final third, the hosts need end product from their striker pool; any wastefulness plays directly into Las Palmas’ low-event, edge-protection game.</p> <h2>Market View and Value</h2> <p>The lines lean to a low total (Under 2.5 around 1.67), which aligns with Las Palmas’ season identity. The standout misprice is “Las Palmas to score first” around 2.15, given away “scored first” at 67% and Granada allowing the first goal in 75% of home games. Draw No Bet on Las Palmas near evens is attractive given the huge splits: unbeaten away versus Granada’s 75% home loss rate. For totals, Under 2.25 (1.80) is preferred to Under 2.5 due to protection and better price.</p> <h2>Predicted Flow</h2> <p>Expect a compact first half trending cagey, with Las Palmas gradually asserting control into the second period. If the visitors break through, their lead-defense is elite; a one-goal margin could hold. Scorelines like 0-1 or 1-1 fit the data profile.</p> <h2>Best Bets Recap</h2> <ul> <li>Las Palmas to score first (2.15) – top value with strong game-state indicators.</li> <li>Las Palmas DNB (2.00) – away superiority with push safety.</li> <li>Under 2.25 Goals (1.80) – low-event Las Palmas template, Segunda tilt.</li> <li>Second half highest scoring (2.10) – Granada’s late concessions vs Las Palmas’ late strikes.</li> <li>Ale García anytime (4.75) – in-form finisher in the right phase window.</li> </ul> <h2>Verdict</h2> <p>Las Palmas’ away control and first-goal probability shape the match. The Oracle views the visitors’ DNB and “to score first” as the standout angles, supported by an under lean and late-scoring slant.</p> </body> </html>
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