AD Ceuta FC vs Eibar
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<html> <head> <title>Ceuta vs Eibar: Tactical Preview, Odds and Key Angles</title> <meta name="description" content="In-depth preview of AD Ceuta FC vs SD Eibar in Spain's Segunda División, including stats, trends, odds and tactical insights."> </head> <body> <h2>Ceuta vs Eibar: Venue Trends Point to a Cagey First Half</h2> <p> Estadio Alfonso Murube stages a fascinating stylistic contrast on October 3 as newly-promoted AD Ceuta FC, sturdy at home, welcome promotion-chasing SD Eibar, who have impressed at Ipurua but faltered on their travels. The market has inched towards Ceuta due to venue splits, and the data backs a tight affair—particularly before the break. </p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p> It is early days in LaLiga Hypermotion (7 rounds), yet the patterns are noteworthy. Ceuta are solid in front of their fans (2.00 PPG at home) and arrive unbeaten in three, including a professional 1–0 over Zaragoza and a gritty 0–0 away to Cádiz. Eibar sit sixth with 11 points, strong at home but with just one point away (0.33 PPG), having lost at Huesca (2–1) and Cádiz (1–0). Both squads report no major injury concerns and should field stable XIs in ideal weather conditions. </p> <h3>Why the First Half Should Be Tight</h3> <p> The biggest statistical tell: Eibar have drawn all three away first halves this season (100%), and 57% of their first halves overall finish level. Ceuta’s home first halves are split (33/33/33), but combined evidence tilts strongly towards a cautious opening. Eibar’s average first goal time is 41’ overall and 52’ away—another pointer to slow starts and late resolution. </p> <h3>Second-Half Tilt and Low Total Goals</h3> <p> Eibar score 70% of their goals after the interval, with a cluster between 46–60’. Ceuta have also produced more after the break (57% of their goals). That makes “Second Half highest scoring” a live angle, while totals still lean under because of venue defence: Ceuta allow just 0.67 goals per game at home and Eibar net only 0.67 per game away. The under 2.5 looks appropriately favoured by the market and remains a sensible inclusion in multiples. </p> <h3>Key Match-Ups</h3> <p> Ceuta’s left flank—José Matos overlapping and linking with Aisar Ahmed—has been a steady source of territory and entries, and Marcos Fernández is the clear end-product leader, scoring a brace at Castellón and the winner against Zaragoza. For Eibar, Aleix Garrido has been an influential conduit (two assists), while José Corpas’ volume (12 shots, eight key passes) speaks to his dual threat. Javi Martón’s instinctive movement has yielded two goals from limited minutes; if he starts, Eibar’s box presence improves notably. </p> <h3>Tactical Themes</h3> <p> Expect Ceuta in a compact 4-3-3, seeking quick diagonals into Fernández and supporting runners from Kuki Zalazar and Lachhab. They have been excellent front-runners at home (PPG when scoring first: 3.00). Eibar under their promotion mandate should still control phases of possession, but the away splits (time leading 4%, leadDefendingRate 0% away) suggest they may probe patiently and lean on set plays rather than over-commit numbers. Substitutions could tilt the final half-hour where Eibar’s second-half output is strongest. </p> <h3>Odds and Value Snapshot</h3> <ul> <li>First Half Draw @ 1.93 – undervalued considering Eibar’s 100% away HT draws and slow-start profile.</li> <li>2nd Half Highest Scoring @ 2.15 – priced as a coin-flip but the guests’ 70% second-half scoring leans this way.</li> <li>Under 2.5 @ 1.53 – aligned with both teams’ venue totals (Ceuta home 1.67 TG, Eibar away 2.00 TG).</li> <li>Ceuta to Score First @ 1.95 – matches Ceuta’s 67% home first-goal rate and Eibar’s 67% away concession of the opener.</li> <li>Anytime Scorer – Marcos Fernández @ 3.75 – the form finisher in a game with tight margins.</li> </ul> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p> The numbers call for patience: a balanced, low-tempo opening with the decisive moments after halftime. Ceuta’s home solidity and Eibar’s road caution point to a low total and a first-half stalemate, with the match likely decided by set-piece quality or a single clear chance—precisely where Marcos Fernández and Eibar’s late-game threat can tip the scales. </p> </body> </html>
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