Granada CF vs Real Sociedad II
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<html> <head><title>Granada vs Real Sociedad II – Data-Led Betting Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Granada vs Real Sociedad II (Segunda División)</h2> <p>Date: 4 October 2025 • Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Weather: Mild, clear</p> <h3>Form and Venue Picture</h3> <p>It’s a curious clash of extremes: Granada’s home form is winless (0-0-3) while Real Sociedad II (RSB) have yet to take a point on the road (0-0-3). Granada, however, arrive with momentum—an away draw at Burgos followed by a gritty 1-0 win at Huesca. RSB’s rhythm has come at Zubieta (unbeaten at home), but their away-body language has been fragile.</p> <p>Numbers underline the volatility. Granada’s matches average 2.71 goals; RSB’s 2.86—both above league baselines. Venue splits are more revealing: Granada home matches average 3.00 goals and RSB away 2.33. If you’re expecting a tight, tactical stalemate, their profiles push the other way.</p> <h3>Injuries, Selection and Tactical Notes</h3> <p>Granada miss Baila Diallo and Álex Sola, potentially nudging tweaks in the back line and wing roles. RSB are without Iñaki Rupérez. No fresh suspensions are flagged. Local reporting frames this as a must-win for Granada; expect them to assert territory early, with RSB seeking compactness and selective breaks.</p> <p>Likely Granada axis: Luca Zidane behind a back four including Manu Lama and Loïc Williams; midfield ballast from Sergio Ruiz and Martin Hongla, with Manu Trigueros linking to a front line that should again feature Pedro Alemán—who has scored two in his last three—and one of Boyé/Weissman. For RSB, look for a youthful cast: Gorka Carrera (2G), Arkaitz Mariezkurrena and Lander Astiazarán supporting transitions, with Aitor Fraga or Arana in goal depending on rotation.</p> <h3>Key Match Dynamics</h3> <ul> <li>First-goal leverage: both sides post 0.00 PPG in the venue split when conceding first. The opener should carry outsized value.</li> <li>Late goal risk: Granada score 67% of their goals after the break; RSB concede heavily late (five goals conceded 76–90’ overall). Expect a busier second half.</li> <li>Lead-defending: RSB’s leadDefendingRate is a stark 20% against a league norm of 57%—they struggle to see games out.</li> </ul> <h3>Market View and Value</h3> <p>Over 2.5 goals around 2.05 looks the sharp angle. Both teams are running 57%+ Over 2.5 overall; in venue splits it’s 67% for each. The price implies sub-49% probability, while the data suggests nearer 55–60%.</p> <p>BTTS Yes at 1.93 also rates well given Granada home BTTS 67% and RSB away 67% (RSB overall 71%). With both clean-sheet rates at just 14%, resistance looks thin on both sides.</p> <p>Highest-scoring half: Second (2.10) deserves attention. Granada’s profile is second-half heavy (67% of GF, 62% of GA), and RSB’s late concessions amplify the signal. The price implies ~47.6%; the splits argue the second half should be favorite.</p> <p>For a derivative, corners under 8.5 at 2.00 is under the radar. Granada home games average 7.0 corners; RSB away 6.33. Venue data shows a complete absence of high-corner hits (>9.5) for both in these splits so far.</p> <h3>Player to Watch</h3> <p>Pedro Alemán (Granada) has quietly become the end-product piece: two goals in his last three, including the winner at Huesca. At 5.00 anytime, the price overstates uncertainty relative to form and usage. For RSB, Gorka Carrera’s directness and nose for late moments makes him the away side’s likeliest scorer.</p> <h3>Context and Intangibles</h3> <p>It’s still early (matchday eight), so treat venue splits with reasonable caution. But the sentiment locally is clear—Granada need to convert improvement into home points. RSB’s youth and away naivety can be exposed, particularly after HT. Ideal weather and a full week’s preparation are additional tailwinds for a high-tempo second half.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Expect a game that opens up after the interval. Goals and BTTS are supported by multiple independent indicators, with second-half scoring the thematic thread. Side markets like corners under 8.5 also make sense given suppressed corner volumes in these splits.</p> <p><strong>Best bets:</strong> Over 2.5 goals (2.05), BTTS Yes (1.93), Highest Scoring Half 2nd (2.10). Longshot prop: Pedro Alemán anytime (5.00).</p> </body> </html>
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