Eibar II vs Ejea
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<html> <head> <title>Eibar B vs Ejea – Segunda RFEF Group 2 Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Eibar B vs Ejea: Goals Expected as Youth Meets Volatility</h2> <p>Two developmental sides with uneven starts meet at Ciudad Deportiva Eibar-Areitio on October 11. Eibar B sit 14th with four points from five, while Ejea are a single point better in 13th. The Oracle’s read of the data and current sentiment suggests a game with chances at both ends, with Eibar B’s home production and Ejea’s away openness shaping the outlook.</p> <h3>Form and Venue Dynamics</h3> <p>Eibar B’s season headline masks a clear split: the reserve side are much more productive at home. They average 2.00 goals for and 2.00 against per home game, with a wild 4-3 win over Alfaro followed by a narrow 0-1 loss to Alavés B. Crucially, 80% of their goals have been scored at home.</p> <p>Ejea’s away profile is even more extreme: 2.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded across two road matches (a 3-2 win at Beasain and a 3-1 loss at Ebro). The away matches have been total chaos – both over 3.5 and both landing BTTS. Combined with both teams’ 0% clean sheet rate, there is strong evidence this matchup can outpace the league’s low-scoring reputation.</p> <h3>Market View vs Statistical Reality</h3> <p>Segunda RFEF lines typically shade under, evidenced by Under 2.5 trading at 1.70. But these teams are outliers right now: Eibar B home matches average 4.00 goals and Ejea away matches 4.50. The goal line Over 2.25 at 1.85 looks fair, offering half-loss protection at exactly two goals and full payout from three upward.</p> <p>Another angle: Eibar B’s Team Total Over 1.5 at 2.19. The home side averages 2.00 GF at Areitio, Ejea concedes 2.50 per away game, and neither side has managed a clean sheet all season. The price implies a 45.7% chance; given the matchup, 50–54% feels more appropriate.</p> <h3>Both Teams To Score: Case For “Yes”</h3> <p>Ejea’s BTTS record is 80% overall and 100% away through five rounds. Eibar B have yet to keep a clean sheet and are uncomfortable without the ball. The risk is Eibar B’s 60% failed-to-score rate overall, but that’s largely driven by away matches; at home they’ve produced four in one, zero in the other. Against a defense that’s conceded in all matches, Eibar B should contribute. BTTS Yes at 1.83 implies 54.6% and still offers a margin if we believe the true probability is north of 60%.</p> <h3>Tactical Notes and Personnel</h3> <p>Without confirmed lineups, expect continuity and youth. Eibar B’s coaching has favored a front-foot approach at home, which can leave gaps in transition. Ejea’s experienced heads like Hakim anchor a team that carries a punch away from home but struggles to close their box. Mentions of A. Larrañaga (Eibar B), Sergio Chica and J. Díez (Ejea) suggest no major absences; discipline for Ejea’s back line could again be a subplot if the game opens up.</p> <h3>Weather and Game State</h3> <p>Basque autumn conditions – mild with potential drizzle – should keep the pitch quick but playable. Given both sides’ defensive records, a first goal could rapidly tilt the game into a trading scenario with space, suiting a goals angle and late opportunities.</p> <h3>Best Bets Summary</h3> <ul> <li>Eibar B Team Total Over 1.5 (2.19): Home scoring profile + Ejea’s away concessions = value.</li> <li>Over 2.25 Goals (1.85): Both teams’ game totals significantly above league norms.</li> <li>BTTS Yes (1.83): Ejea BTTS 80% (100% away), Eibar B CS 0%.</li> <li>Eibar B -0.25 (1.85): Lean to home edge; half-loss protection on a draw.</li> </ul> <h3>Correct Score Lean</h3> <p>For big odds hunters, 2-1 Eibar B at 11.00 fits the core thesis: home side to breach twice, Ejea to contribute, yet a narrow margin given Eibar B’s defensive frailty.</p> <p>Verdict: The Oracle expects an open contest with Eibar B’s home attack and Ejea’s defensive record driving a pro-goals stance. Markets shaded to the under create value on selective overs and a home team total.</p> </body> </html>
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