Alaves vs Oviedo
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<html> <head> <title>Alaves vs Real Oviedo: Relegation Six-Pointer Betting Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Alaves vs Real Oviedo: Survival Stakes at Mendizorroza</h2> <p>Alaves host Real Oviedo in a vital La Liga relegation battle at Estadio de Mendizorroza, where the home side’s dependable structure meets an Oviedo side short on goals and confidence. With Alaves sitting 14th and Oviedo 19th, the stakes are unmistakable: points now could prove season-defining.</p> <h3>Team News and Selection Notes</h3> <p>Reports indicate Alaves will be without striker Lucas Boyé until mid-January due to a muscle injury, while suspensions (Facundo Garcés, Víctor Parada) thin depth. That elevates the importance of <strong>Carlos Vicente</strong>—their top league scorer with four, all at home—and likely gives <strong>Toni Martínez</strong> more central minutes. Alaves’ recent cup performance provided a lift, and goalkeeper <strong>Antonio Sivera</strong> has been steady.</p> <p>Oviedo’s situation is heavier: long-term absentee <strong>Álvaro Lemos</strong> (ACL) headlines an injury list that includes <strong>Ilyas Chaira</strong> and others, while discipline and availability issues have rotated through the back line. Up front, veteran <strong>Salomón Rondón</strong> remains the reference point, but the supply line has been patchy and finishing has lagged for weeks.</p> <h3>Form and Tactical Tendencies</h3> <p>Form tells a stark story. Oviedo are winless in 10 and have not scored in seven consecutive league matches. On the road they carry 0.5 points per game, 75% defeats, and crucially <em>no clean sheets</em>. They concede first in 88% of away fixtures, often falling behind early (average minute conceded first: 19), which forces a reactive, lower-block posture that still leaks chances.</p> <p>Alaves have dipped in recent weeks overall, but home metrics are resilient: 1.56 points per game at Mendizorroza, 80% lead-defending rate, and only 1.0 goals conceded per game. Expect a pragmatic 4-3-3 from the hosts, aiming to win territory, trigger wide overloads for Vicente, and keep the game in Oviedo’s half with set-play pressure.</p> <h3>Key Matchups</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Wings and Service:</strong> With Boyé out, Alaves will look for crossing value and second-ball chances. Vicente’s movement against Oviedo’s full-backs (who’ve been rotated due to injuries) is pivotal.</li> <li><strong>First Goal Leverage:</strong> Alaves’ points per game at home when scoring first jumps to 3.0; Oviedo’s equalizing rate is just 17% overall. The opener likely decides tone and tempo.</li> <li><strong>Set Pieces:</strong> Oviedo have relied on re-starts for half-chances; Alaves’ aerial unit and Sivera’s command are reliable and should stifle those limited routes.</li> </ul> <h3>Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Oviedo: 0.41 goals per game; failed to score in 76% of league matches.</li> <li>Oviedo away: 2.0 goals conceded per game, 0% clean sheets.</li> <li>Alaves home: 1.56 ppg, 80% lead-defending rate.</li> <li>Timing: Oviedo away losing at half-time in 88% of games; average minute conceded first 19.</li> </ul> <h3>Betting Outlook</h3> <p>The market leans low totals (Under 2.5 around 1.45), which is logical given Oviedo’s attacking drought and Alaves’ personnel losses up front. The sharper angles center on <strong>Alaves to win</strong> (1.84), <strong>Alaves to score first</strong> (1.67), and <strong>Oviedo under 0.5 team goals</strong> (1.91). For bolder positions consistent with the expected game script, <strong>Alaves & Under 2.5</strong> at 3.00 captures the 1-0/2-0 lanes; exact scores 1-0 (4.20) and 2-0 (6.25) also rate.</p> <p>Player-wise, with Boyé sidelined, <strong>Carlos Vicente anytime</strong> at 3.50 is the cleanest shot-taker correlation—his production lives at home, and Oviedo haven’t kept an away clean sheet.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Everything points to a home-favored, lower-scoring encounter: Alaves’ structure and set-piece presence against an Oviedo side that struggles to create or convert on the road. The first goal is critical; if Alaves find it—as the away trends suggest—they rarely relinquish control at Mendizorroza.</p> <p><strong>Projected lean:</strong> Alaves 1-0 or 2-0.</p> </body> </html>
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