Atletico Madrid vs Oviedo
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<html> <head><title>Atletico Madrid vs Real Oviedo: Matchday 14 Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Atletico Madrid vs Real Oviedo – Metropolitano, Nov 29, 2025</h2> <p>Atletico Madrid welcome Real Oviedo to the Metropolitano with the two clubs moving in opposite directions. Diego Simeone’s side arrive in red-hot domestic form, while Oviedo travel short on confidence, goals and bodies. Cool, dry Madrid conditions should favor the hosts’ tempo and late-game intensity.</p> <h3>Form & Context</h3> <p>Atletico are unbeaten in 12 league matches and have won seven of their last eight, averaging 2.75 points per game in that stretch. At home, they’ve been ruthless: 86% win rate, 2.57 goals scored and just 0.86 conceded per game. They’ve scored first in every league match this season and spend only a sliver of time behind.</p> <p>Oviedo sit bottom, winless in six and goalless in three straight league outings. Their season-long output is a league-low 0.54 goals per game, with a stark 69% “failed to score” rate. Away from home, they’ve lost two-thirds of their games and failed to score in two-thirds, a grim combination against one of Spain’s best home sides.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Expect Atletico to control territory and chance volume, then pull away after halftime. Simeone’s side are a second-half machine at home—two-thirds of their home goals arrive after the break, with a flurry between 76–90 minutes. Oviedo’s defensive workload figures to be heavy: their goalkeeper Aarón Escandell leads the league’s save charts by workload, a signal of repeated pressure phases and likely corner accumulation for Atleti.</p> <p>In possession, Koke and Rodrigo De Paul should dictate tempo, with Marcos Llorente’s running breaking Oviedo’s lines. Up front, Julián Álvarez (seven league goals; six at home) and Antoine Griezmann (four home goals) profile well against a back line that has struggled to defend the width and back-post zones. Oviedo’s best outlets—Haissem Hassan’s dribbles and Salomón Rondón’s hold-up—are likely to be isolated by Atletico’s compact mid-block and ball recoveries led by Llorente and De Paul.</p> <h3>Key Numbers Driving the Odds</h3> <ul> <li>Atletico home: 2.71 PPG, 86% wins; Oviedo away: 0.67 PPG, 67% losses.</li> <li>Oviedo failed to score: 69% overall, 67% away; Atletico home clean sheets: 43% (vs stronger average opposition).</li> <li>Goal timing: Atletico score 67% of home goals after HT; Oviedo concede late (overall GA 11 in second halves, six in 76–90).</li> <li>Corners: Atletico home matches average 12.86 corners, with over 9.5 landing in 71%.</li> </ul> <h3>Selection Talking Points</h3> <p>The handicap and clean-sheet angles line up with both teams’ baselines. Atletico’s -1.5 holds firm value against the league’s most anaemic attack; the “win to nil” enhances price with modest extra risk given Atletico’s 86% home win rate and Oviedo’s huge FTS percentages. The second half market also offers value, reflecting Atletico’s habit of pressing their advantage late. A corner total north of 9.5 is supported by Atletico’s home corner volume and Oviedo’s deep block leading to clearances and deflections.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <p><strong>Antoine Griezmann</strong> continues to be Atletico’s attacking fulcrum, combining with Álvarez for dynamic movements across the front line. Griezmann’s home scoring clip supports an anytime look at a generous price. For Oviedo, <strong>Aarón Escandell</strong> may again be the busiest player on the pitch; his shot-stopping has kept several scorelines respectable but also signals sustained pressure against his back four.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Atletico Madrid 2–0 Real Oviedo. Expect control from the hosts, a patient first half, and eventual separation after the interval. The metrics, form, and match state tendencies all point to Atletico clearing the line and protecting Oblak’s clean sheet.</p> </body> </html>
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