Alaves vs Valencia
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<html> <head><title>Alavés vs Valencia: Betting Preview, Odds and Tactical Analysis</title></head> <body> <h2>Alavés vs Valencia: Mendizorroza test with goals on the cards</h2> <p>LaLiga’s Monday night fixture brings Alavés and Valencia together in Vitoria-Gasteiz, where the hosts’ strong home profile meets an away side still searching for stability. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC at Estadio de Mendizorroza.</p> <h3>Form and context</h3> <p>Alavés sit 11th with 11 points from 8, buoyed by a 3-1 home win over Elche last time out. Valencia arrive 16th on 8 points after a 2-1 defeat at Girona, a result that followed the late collapse versus Real Oviedo at Mestalla. Over the last eight, Alavés have accrued 11 points to Valencia’s 8, which mirrors broader trajectories.</p> <h3>Home vs away: the decisive split</h3> <p>Mendizorroza has been lively. Alavés are averaging 1.75 goals for and 1.25 against at home with 75% of matches clearing 2.5 and 100% BTTS. They’ve scored in every home game and tend to finish strongly — four goals between 76-90 minutes so far.</p> <p>Valencia, by contrast, have been fragile away: 0.25 PPG, conceding 2.75 per game. Three of their four away outings saw them concede at least twice (6-0 Barcelona, 2-2 Espanyol, 2-1 Girona). They’ve conceded late as well, with five goals allowed in the final quarter-hour across all venues and three of those away.</p> <h3>Tactical match-ups and key battles</h3> <p>Alavés’ wide threat is the clear lever. Carlos Vicente has three league goals, all at home, and his timing and runs against an undermanned Valencia backline (Diakhaby out; Copete-Tárrega partnership still bedding in) are pivotal. Toni Martínez gives the hosts a direct reference to pin centre-backs, with Carles Aleñá and Antonio Blanco supplying through the lanes and set-piece quality.</p> <p>Valencia’s attacking pulse comes from Arnaut Danjuma and Hugo Duro. Danjuma’s movement off the left into the half-space and Duro’s penalty-box instincts have combined for six goals. The supply line—Luis Rioja’s crossing and Pepelu/Javi Guerra’s vertical progression—will be vital to stress Alavés’ right side where Tenaglia steps out aggressively. However, without Diakhaby’s organizing presence, transitions against are a worry for Rubén Baraja’s men.</p> <h3>Game state and late phases</h3> <p>Expect a cagey opening followed by a more open second half. Both sides skew after the interval: Alavés have 67% of their goals post-HT; Valencia 70% scored and 79% conceded after the break. Substitutions—especially Duro returning to the XI and Alavés introducing energy from Rebbach—should further tilt the latter stages towards chances.</p> <h3>Numbers that matter</h3> <ul> <li>Alavés home: 75% over 2.5; 100% BTTS; scored in 100% of home matches.</li> <li>Valencia away: 2.75 GA per game; conceded 2+ in 3/4 away; 75% over 2.5 away.</li> <li>Late goals: Alavés 76-90’ GF 4; Valencia 76-90’ GA 5.</li> <li>Lead management: Alavés lead-defend rate 75% vs Valencia 33% overall.</li> </ul> <h3>Predicted line-ups</h3> <p><strong>Alavés (4-2-3-1):</strong> Sivera; Jonny, Tenaglia, Pacheco/Garcés, Enríquez; A. Blanco, Ibáñez; Vicente, Boyé, Rebbach; T. Martínez.</p> <p><strong>Valencia (4-4-2/4-2-3-1):</strong> Agirrezabala; Correia, Tárrega, Copete, Gayà; Rioja, Santamaría, Pepelu, Diego López; Danjuma, Duro.</p> <h3>Weather and match tempo</h3> <p>Mild, clear conditions (16-18°C) should favor a reasonable tempo and clean playing surface—good for wide runners and late attacking phases. That aligns with the second-half goals profile.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s betting view</h3> <p>The Oracle prioritizes safety with Alavés +0 (DNB) at 1.57, given the brutal Valencia away splits and Alavés’ home reliability. The stronger plus-money edges lie in goals: Alavés Team Total Over 1.5 at 2.55 and Match Over 2.5 at 2.45 are both mispriced given venue-specific trends. For a timing angle, “Alavés to score last” at 1.85 leverages late-phase patterns. If you want a player prop, Carlos Vicente anytime at 3.75 is the pick: form, venue, and opponent profile align.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Alavés to avoid defeat is the base case; the match script points to a lively second half with the hosts more likely to land the decisive blow. Expect Valencia to contribute, but Mendizorroza’s late surge could be the difference.</p> </body> </html>
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