Alaves vs Elche

<div> <h2>Alaves vs Elche: Form book meets price value in Vitoria-Gasteiz</h2> <p>Alaves welcome unbeaten Elche to Mendizorroza for LaLiga’s eighth round with divergent moods around both clubs. The hosts have been compact but streaky, while the visitors carry a quietly impressive start built on resilience and second-half punch. With mild early-October conditions expected, the tactical battle should decide whether Elche’s equalising machine can keep rolling.</p> <h3>State of play and motivation</h3> <p>Elche sit fourth (13 points), undefeated (3W-4D), and trending upward after beating Celta and drawing at Osasuna with a stoppage-time leveller. Alaves (11th, 8 points) have respectable scalps — including a 1–0 away win at Athletic — but recent results (L-D-L) spotlight stalled attacking output. Pressure locally is building for more final-third invention.</p> <h3>Patterns that matter</h3> <p>Two venue splits leap out. First, both teams have scored in every Alaves home match and every Elche away match. That dovetails with Elche’s profile: they’ve conceded first in all three road trips, yet boast a 100% equalising rate. Second, Elche’s goals skew heavily to the second half (70% overall), while Alaves at home concede proportionally more after the break, especially in the 61–75 window.</p> <p>Score flow fits the eye test: Elche are well-structured, strong centrally (Affengruber-Bigas in good form), and rapid in transitions through wide players and forwards. They can be slow starters away from home but grow into matches, which is why they’ve drawn all three on the road.</p> <h3>Tactics and key matchups</h3> <p>Alaves underpinned by goalkeeper Antonio Sivera (7.26 rating) have defended their box reasonably well, yet they’ve conceded early at home on average (minute 8), which invites a game-state that suits Elche’s equaliser habit. Antonio Blanco’s ball-winning and Carles Aleñá’s vertical passing must connect more often with Toni Martínez and Carlos Vicente to stretch Elche’s compact block.</p> <p>For Elche, the direct threat of Rafa Mir and the penalty-box nous of André Silva drive end-product (six combined goals, 60% of the team’s total). With Aleix Febas knitting play and reliable full-back supply from Álvaro Núñez, Elche should find moments to isolate Alaves’ centre-backs — especially with Alaves missing defensive depth (Moussa Diarra, Nikola Maras).</p> <h3>Why the draw is live — and why BTTS is value</h3> <p>Elche’s away split tells its own story: three of three away draws, both teams scored in all three, and they’ve equalised every time after conceding first. Alaves’ home slate mirrors this: all three home games saw both teams find the net. That symmetry supports two complementary positions: Both Teams to Score (at a generous 2.15) and the Draw (3.00). If you prefer risk-managed exposure, Elche Draw No Bet (2.25) preserves stake on the stalemate while paying out if Elche nick it late.</p> <h3>Second-half edge and player to watch</h3> <p>With Elche’s pronounced second-half scoring bias and Alaves’ tendency to concede in the 61–75 window, the “Elche to score in the second half” market at 2.30 looks underpriced. The fulcrum is Rafa Mir: three goals already, seven shots on target, and the archetype of a forward who thrives in broken phases as the game lengthens. At 3.75, his Anytime Scorer price carries upside given his finishing volume and Alaves’ defensive absences.</p> <h3>Injury notes and context</h3> <p>Alaves are without Moussa Diarra and Nikola Maras, reducing centre-back cover at precisely the time Elche arrive with confidence. Elche list no fresh issues, preserving continuity in selection and roles. With seven matches played, this is still early-season terrain — some extremes (Elche’s 100% away equalising, 100% BTTS venue splits) will regress — but current profiles justify the prices flagged.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Expect a tense, honest contest with swings in momentum. Alaves can create enough to score at home, but Elche’s structural resilience and late-game threat make defeat unlikely. The numbers point to a goal each and a live draw — with upside routes for Elche if they win the key transitions.</p> <h3>Best bets</h3> <ul> <li>Both Teams to Score – Yes (2.15)</li> <li>Elche +0 Draw No Bet (2.25)</li> <li>Match Draw (3.00)</li> <li>Elche to score in 2nd Half – Yes (2.30)</li> <li>Anytime Goalscorer: Rafa Mir (3.75)</li> </ul> </div>