Mallorca vs Alaves
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<html> <head> <title>Mallorca vs Alavés: Data-Led Betting Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Mallorca vs Alavés — Tight margins in Son Moix</h2> <p>Estadi de Son Moix hosts a tense clash as struggling Mallorca welcome a quietly confident Alavés. The hosts sit 19th with no wins in five, while Alavés have seven points and the air of a stabilising mid-table side. Both teams arrive with a full week’s rest and no major injury concerns, setting up a tactical arm wrestle.</p> <h3>Why the market underrates the Under</h3> <p>Alavés’ away profile screams “low-event.” Their two road matches have produced a total of two goals combined (1.00 total goals per game), with a 50% clean-sheet rate and <strong>0% BTTS</strong>. Mallorca’s home games average 2.33 goals and have seen <strong>0% over 3.5</strong>. The stylistic mesh points toward a controlled tempo and late separation at most. That is why Under 3.0 goals at 1.80 (push on exactly three) holds strong value over the more popular but shorter Under 2.5 at 1.45.</p> <h3>Game state: Mallorca’s early struggles, Alavés’ composure</h3> <ul> <li>Mallorca have scored first in <strong>0% of home games</strong>; opponents scored first 100%.</li> <li>Alavés’ away <strong>lead-defending rate is 100%</strong>, a sign of tactical discipline once ahead.</li> <li>Mallorca’s time trailing at home sits at 51% and they’ve yet to lead at the break.</li> </ul> <p>That combination nudges bettors toward Alavés Draw No Bet at a generous 2.35 and Alavés to score first at 2.45. The price on DNB looks particularly misaligned with underlying numbers: Mallorca’s home PPG (0.67) lags Alavés’ away PPG (1.50), and the visitors’ defensive trends travel well.</p> <h3>The second-half tilt</h3> <p>Both sides skew late. Mallorca have scored <strong>all</strong> of their home goals in the final quarter-hour (76–90), while Alavés’ away goals have come exclusively after the interval. Average first goal timings further confirm the slow burn: Mallorca’s home average minute scored is 86; Alavés away score around 57. That supports Highest Scoring Half: 2nd Half at 2.10 and a nibble on HT 0-0 at 2.20.</p> <h3>Players and matchups</h3> <p>Mallorca’s threat is concentrated in Vedat Muriqi (4 goals, 80% of the team’s total). Sergi Darder and Pablo Torre provide creative supply (combined 16 key passes). However, the hosts’ early-phase chance creation is sputtering, making them vulnerable to the first punch.</p> <p>Alavés bring a sturdy spine: Antonio Sivera is in form (16 saves, 7.56 rating), Antonio Blanco anchors midfield (15 tackles, 10 interceptions), and the back four—Jonny, Garcés, Tenaglia, and likely Diarra/Parada—wins duels and blocks. Carlos Vicente (2G, penalties) and Toni Martínez (1G) offer pragmatic end-product, even if chance volume is modest on the road.</p> <h3>Context and sentiment</h3> <p>Local reports frame this as a pressure fixture for Mallorca, with fans anxious after a poor start. By contrast, Alavés’ camp is calm and optimistic about building on a solid foundation. With both managers expected to keep familiar setups, an attritional contest feels probable, with Alavés happy to play within structure and wait for the mismatch.</p> <h3>Scoreline radar</h3> <ul> <li>Mallorca home mode: <strong>1-1</strong> (67%).</li> <li>Alavés away split: <strong>0-1 or 1-0</strong> (50% each).</li> </ul> <p>The distribution points to narrow results. If Mallorca’s late pressure tells, 1-1 is live; if Alavés dictate first goal and shut the door (a pattern they like away), 0-1 is very plausible—and at a good price.</p> <h3>Best bets summary</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Under 3.0 Goals (1.80)</strong> – primary value with push protection.</li> <li><strong>Alavés DNB (2.35)</strong> – Mallorca’s frail starts vs Alavés’ game-state control.</li> <li><strong>Alavés to score first (2.45)</strong> – host’s 0% rate of scoring first at home.</li> <li><strong>Highest Scoring Half: 2nd (2.10)</strong> – both teams’ goals skew after HT.</li> <li><em>Sprinkles</em>: HT 0-0 (2.20); exact 0-1 (6.25) or 1-1 (5.25).</li> </ul> <p>Overall, the data favors a cagey affair where the first goal, if it comes, is likelier to belong to the visitors—and to arrive after the interval.</p> </body> </html>
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