Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
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<html> <head><title>Gimcheon Sangmu vs Ulsan Hyundai – Data-Driven Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Form, Stakes and Storylines</h2> <p>Gimcheon Sangmu welcome Ulsan Hyundai to Gimcheon Stadium with the hosts flying high in 2nd and Ulsan languishing in 10th. Sentiment mirrors the standings: Gimcheon are praised for cohesion and consistency, while Ulsan face scrutiny amid a six-game winless run and three straight draws. With mild autumn weather expected, conditions should suit a tactical, low-error contest.</p> <h3>Why the Market Leans to Gimcheon</h3> <ul> <li>Home strength: 1.88 PPG at home, 44% clean sheets, 0.88 GA per game.</li> <li>Ulsan away dip: 1.13 PPG away, 1.38 GA, winless in their last nine league trips.</li> <li>Form trajectory: Gimcheon’s last eight improved to 2.00 PPG and 2.25 GF; Ulsan slide to 0.75 PPG and 1.75 GA.</li> <li>Lead dynamics: Gimcheon defend leads at 69% (home). Ulsan’s away lead-defending is just 44%.</li> </ul> <h3>Tactical Patterns and Timing</h3> <p>Expect a chess match before the break, followed by acceleration late on. Gimcheon are notably second-half tilted at home (64% of their goals), and they’ve scored 10 times in the final quarter-hour at home. Ulsan concede late on the road (seven goals allowed in minutes 76–90), which could tilt close game states toward the hosts after halftime.</p> <h3>Totals and BTTS Angles</h3> <p>Season-long venue data suggests a controlled totals profile. Gimcheon’s home fixtures have seen over 3.5 in only 19% of games, Ulsan away over 3.5 just 25%. While Gimcheon’s last-eight have been goal-richer, the combination still supports a safer Under 3.5 angle. BTTS is trickier: Ulsan away BTTS is high (62%), but Gimcheon at home is lower (44%). The market has shaded BTTS Yes heavily, leaving limited value there; the safer route is totals rather than BTTS.</p> <h3>Key Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Gimcheon: Lee Dong-gyeong (11 goals, last on 27 Sep) is the main threat between lines; Park Sang-Hyeok (10) and Kim Seung-seob (6) add vertical runs and penalty-box presence. Playmaker Lee Seung-Won (5 assists) links transitions.</li> <li>Ulsan: Jo Hyeon-woo remains a top shot-stopper, but the attack has misfired. Erick Farias (9) hasn’t scored since July; Gustav Ludwigson and Marcão provide moments, yet sustained output has lacked.</li> </ul> <h3>Situational Factors</h3> <p>Gimcheon score first in 62% of home games; Ulsan concede first in 56% away. That sets the tone: if the hosts strike early or tilt momentum straight after halftime, their superior lead-defending should keep them in command. Ulsan’s equalizing rate away (50%) is a saving grace, but with poor away win percentage (25%) and recent fatigue from chasing games, margin for error is slim.</p> <h3>Market Recommendations and Value</h3> <ul> <li>Primary: Gimcheon/Draw Double Chance (1.45). Pricing implies ~69% but venue/form data supports ~75%+.</li> <li>DNB: Gimcheon +0 (1.80) for better price with draw protection—strong against Ulsan’s away win scarcity.</li> <li>Under 3.5 (1.50): Aligns with season-long venue tendencies despite Gimcheon’s recent attacking spike.</li> <li>Highest Scoring Half – 2nd (1.95): Late Gimcheon surges meet Ulsan’s late away concessions.</li> <li>First to Score – Gimcheon (1.93): The 62% vs 56% split leans toward the hosts at a fair price.</li> </ul> <h3>Scoreline Picture</h3> <p>The data supports a narrow home edge in a relatively controlled game. Gimcheon’s home score distribution shows 1-0 and 2-0 each at 19%—high for this market. Meanwhile, Ulsan’s most common away outcome is 1-1 (31%). A tight 1-0 or 1-1 feels most on-script, with the hosts likelier to steal it late.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>With the table, form, and situational metrics aligned, Gimcheon are the right side with protection (DC or DNB). Totals should skew conservative under 3.5, while second-half markets offer a complementary angle. Keep an eye on Lee Dong-gyeong’s influence between lines and Gimcheon’s late-game push against Ulsan’s vulnerable final quarter-hour.</p> </body> </html>
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