OFK Beograd vs Novi Pazar

<div> <h2>OFK Beograd vs Novi Pazar – Data-Driven Preview</h2> <p>Date: 13 September 2025, 17:30 UTC – Serbia Super Liga</p> <h3>Context and Stakes</h3> <p>Both teams sit in the upper mid-table early in the season (OFK 6th, Novi Pazar 7th), aiming to consolidate and push toward the top-six. Media sentiment frames this as a balanced, open fixture, with Novi Pazar carrying a psychological edge thanks to an unbeaten run in recent head-to-heads (reported 4 wins and 3 draws in the last seven meetings). Weather in Belgrade should be mild and suitable for a free-flowing game.</p> <h3>Form and Trends</h3> <p>OFK come in with a recent uptick after a bruising loss to Red Star, taking seven points from the last three. Their season has been defined by goal-heavy matches: 3.71 total goals per game, 71% over 2.5, and an eye-catching 86% both teams to score (BTTS). At Omladinski stadion, OFK’s home PPG is just 1.00 with 1.00 GF and 1.50 GA, indicating they’re more vulnerable at home than away.</p> <p>Novi Pazar’s away profile is strong: 1.67 PPG, 2.00 GF and 1.67 GA, unbeaten on the road (two draws and a win). Their matches also trend high for goals (3.67 per game), with 67% over 2.5 and 100% BTTS away. Crucially, they tend to score first early (average first goal at 19’), while OFK concede early (conceded first at 26’). This sets up an early punch from the visitors and a live in-play angle for OFK to respond.</p> <h3>Tactical Picture</h3> <p>OFK’s chance creation hinges on Diogo Bezerra (14 key passes) and Mituljikić’s finishing (2 goals in 3 apps). Šćepović offers experienced hold-up play. They’re elastic in matches — conceding first often but recovering, with a 1.00 ppg when conceding first. Defensively, they have individual positives (Đermanović’s 7.37 rating), but the unit still leaks chances, aligned with their above-league concessions (2.14 GA vs league 1.47).</p> <p>Novi Pazar possess multiple threats: Ejike Opara (2G, 1A, 7.04 rating) and Samson Iyede (2G) headline the attack, while Adem Ljajić’s recent inclusion (115 passes in just 136 minutes) adds a creative hub between the lines. The fullback/centre-back supply line is notable too: Marinković has 2 assists. They’re dangerous in transitions and late-game situations; their equalizing rate is 67% overall and 100% away — they don’t fold when trailing.</p> <h3>Key Match Phases</h3> <p>Expect a cagey opening punctured by a possible early Novi Pazar strike (they’ve scored first in 67% of away matches). OFK’s home first halves have been draw-heavy, but Novi Pazar’s away first halves skew to trailing (67%). The clearest commonality is the second half: OFK produce 55% of their goals after HT and concede 60% there; Novi Pazar score 70% after HT. This is a fertile window for in-play over 1.5 second-half goals.</p> <h3>Betting Outlook</h3> <ul> <li>BTTS – Yes (1.67): Both sides have yet to fail to score this season; venue splits reinforce it (OFK home BTTS 75%, Novi Pazar away BTTS 100%).</li> <li>Over 2.5 Goals (1.73): Both average well over league totals; matchups and second-half skews support a 2–1/1–2 type scoreline.</li> <li>Double Chance Draw/Novi Pazar (1.80): OFK’s modest home returns contrast with Novi Pazar’s resilient, unbeaten away profile and positive H2H sentiment.</li> <li>Novi Pazar to Win Either Half (2.25): They’ve won a half in all three away fixtures — backed by OFK’s inconsistent in-game control at home.</li> </ul> <h3>Prop and Longshot</h3> <p>Exact Score 1-1 (7.00): Novi Pazar’s 67% away draws and the strong BTTS trend make 1-1 a live, price-worthy longshot.</p> <h3>What Could Change the Script?</h3> <p>An OFK early goal would invert the “away to score first” angle, but Novi Pazar’s away equalizing rate at 100% suggests they’ll still punch back. Conversely, if Novi Pazar score first, OFK’s 1.00 ppg when conceding first plus their 50% equalizing rate brings the draw back into play. Keep an eye on team sheets: the presence of Ljajić from the start would further boost Novi Pazar’s on-ball control and set-piece quality.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Data points converge on an open, competitive game with goals at both ends. BTTS is the most robust angle, with totals and Novi Pazar’s double-chance the next-best approaches. Expect the story to be written after halftime — that’s where both sides do most of their damage.</p> </div>