Heart Of Midlothian vs Livingston
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<html> <head> <title>Hearts vs Livingston: Tactical and Betting Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Hearts poised to flex at Tynecastle against struggling Livingston</h2> <p>Table-topping Hearts welcome bottom club Livingston to Tynecastle Park with the form book and the market heavily siding with the hosts. Hearts have been imperious at home (6-3-0), scoring 20 and conceding just seven, while Livingston arrive with one of the league’s weakest away profiles (0.40 points per game, 0.7 goals scored, 2.0 conceded). The Oracle’s models align with the odds-makers on the 1x2 but uncover value on derivatives that capture Hearts’ game-state control and second-half surge.</p> <h3>Form and context</h3> <p>Hearts sit on 41 points from 19, clear of Celtic and Rangers after statement December wins: 2-1 away to Celtic and 2-1 at home to Rangers. A narrow 3-2 derby defeat at Hibernian doesn’t dent the broader upward trend. Livingston, by contrast, are mired in a 17-match league winless run, three straight defeats, and have conceded in 13 consecutive games. Their last two at home were a 2-4 to Celtic (having led twice early) and a limp 1-3 to Dundee United.</p> <h3>Tactical matchup</h3> <p>Hearts underpinned by an aggressive, well-drilled structure thrive at Tynecastle. They score first at home in 89% of matches, and once ahead, they manage games well—league-best ppg when scoring first (2.69). Livingston’s issues are structural: an 80% away rate of conceding first, a <em>zero</em> away lead-defending rate, and limited threat in transition. Hearts should enjoy territory and set-piece volume; centre-backs Stuart Findlay (four league goals) and Craig Halkett (three) are notable weapons against a Livi unit that leaks chances from restarts.</p> <h3>Goal timing: expect late separation</h3> <p>Both the data and the eye test suggest the match will tilt more after halftime. Hearts score 61% of their goals in the second half, while Livingston ship 59% of their concessions after the interval (13 away). The period 76-90 minutes is especially grim for Livingston (12 GA), matching Hearts’ late flurries. That strengthens “Second Half Winner: Hearts” and “Highest Scoring Half: Second” angles.</p> <h3>Players to watch</h3> <p>Lawrence Shankland is the headline act with 10 league goals; his anytime price (1.53) reflects the threat. Yet, the smart money may be on set-piece targets. Stuart Findlay has real scoring rhythm for a defender and is attractively priced to score anytime at 5.50. Cameron Devlin’s industry and Stephen Kingsley’s delivery furnish the platform. For Livingston, Cristian Montaño and Scott Pittman can carry some threat, but sustained phases in Hearts’ half have been rare away from home.</p> <h3>Market and value</h3> <p>Match odds sit around 1.34 for Hearts—a fair representation. The value lies in:</p> <ul> <li>Hearts -1.5 at 2.00: Livi’s away fail-to-score at 50% and 2.0 GA per game suggest margin potential.</li> <li>Second Half Winner Hearts at 1.62: aligns with both teams’ strong/weak second-half splits.</li> <li>Hearts Win to Nil at 2.20: Hearts’ 44% home clean sheets, Livingston’s 50% away FTS.</li> <li>Hearts & Over 2.5 at 2.00: Hearts’ home total goals at 3.00, Livi away Over 2.5 at 60%.</li> <li>Prop: Stuart Findlay anytime 5.50: set-piece mismatch.</li> </ul> <h3>Risks and caveats</h3> <p>Hearts’ last-8 PPG has dipped (1.50 vs 2.16 season), and their BTTS at home stands at 56%. A consolation for Livingston isn’t impossible—particularly if the game loosens late. Weather in early January at Tynecastle can be cold and blustery; that’s more a brake on extreme overs rather than a deterrent for handicap plays. Squad news appears stable; monitor any late changes to Hearts’ back line and set-piece takers.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s view</h3> <p>This is a profile game. Hearts dominate starts, Livingston concede the first goal away, and the second half skews heavily towards Hearts’ strengths. The handicap and second-half markets are the best expressions of the underlying mismatch, with set-piece props offering long-price upside.</p> <h4>Best Bets</h4> <p>- Hearts -1.5 (2.00)<br> - Second Half Winner: Hearts (1.62)<br> - Hearts Win to Nil (2.20)<br> - Hearts & Over 2.5 (2.00)<br> - Stuart Findlay Anytime (5.50)</p> </body> </html>
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