Celtic vs Hibernian
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<html> <head><title>Celtic vs Hibernian: Data-Led Match Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Celtic vs Hibernian — Form, Trends and Value Bets</h2> <p>League leaders Celtic welcome third-placed Hibernian to Celtic Park on 27 September (14:00 UTC) in a meeting of two sides off to positive starts. While Hibs’ unbeaten run adds intrigue, the numbers point to a familiar pattern in Glasgow: Celtic control, a slow-burn first half, and a decisive late surge.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Celtic arrive unbeaten (4W, 1D) with a league-best defensive record: just one goal conceded in five matches, and none at home. Hibernian are also unbeaten (1W, 3D), scoring in every game but conceding frequently (7 in 4). The table aligns with the eye test: Celtic 1st, Hibs 3rd, with the champions yet to show any cracks at Celtic Park.</p> <h3>Venue Dynamics: Celtic Park Matters</h3> <p>At home, Celtic’s metrics are impeccable: 3.00 points per game, 100% clean sheets, 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded on average. They’ve scored first in both home games and defended those leads flawlessly. Hibernian’s only away fixture was a 2–1 win at Dundee FC; encouraging, but too small a sample to override Celtic Park’s established edge.</p> <h3>Goal Timing: Why the Second Half Is King</h3> <p>The most striking split is Celtic’s scoring profile: 88% of their goals have come after half-time, with repeated productivity in the final quarter of an hour (76–90 minutes). Pair that with their two home half-time results (both 0–0), and the game script emerges: cagey first half, Celtic acceleration after the break. Hibs, by contrast, have scored more first-half goals (62% of their total), but have also conceded in key late first-half and early second-half windows.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchups and Key Players</h3> <ul> <li>Celtic defence: Cameron Carter-Vickers and Liam Scales are in commanding form, and Kasper Schmeichel has conceded once in five league outings. This spine supports bets around clean sheets and unders.</li> <li>Celtic attack: Benjamin Nygren leads with 3 goals in 5, Daizen Maeda contributes direct running and end product, while Kelechi Iheanacho’s late strike at Kilmarnock reflects the side’s late-game power.</li> <li>Hibernian threats: Kieron Bowie (3 league goals) gives a vertical outlet, Jamie McGrath adds guile and penalty threat, and Rocky Bushiri’s two league goals mark a set-piece danger. Yet, Hibs’ clean sheet rate is 0% and their BTTS rate 100%, a recipe for entertaining but defensively vulnerable football.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds, Edges, and What They Imply</h3> <p>Books make Celtic heavy favourites (1.29 ML). To extract value, the data directs us to combination and derivative markets:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Celtic & Under 3.5 (2.25)</strong>: Matches the Parkhead pattern—two home wins finished 1–0 and 3–0. Celtic’s overall total goals are low for a dominant side, reflecting defensive control and measured game states.</li> <li><strong>Second Half Winner: Celtic (1.55)</strong>: The strongest timing edge on the board. Celtic’s late-game goal share vs Hibs’ tendency to yield after the interval is a clear angle.</li> <li><strong>Half-Time Draw (2.65)</strong>: Celtic’s two home half-time results (both 0–0) and average first goal timing (home: minute 67) suggest a suppressed first half.</li> <li><strong>Celtic Win to Nil (2.20)</strong>: Riskier given Hibs’ 100% scoring record, but the price respects that and still leans towards Celtic’s elite home defence.</li> <li><strong>Anytime Scorer – Benjamin Nygren (2.30)</strong>: Team’s form finisher, active shot volume, and a favourable matchup against a Hibs defence allowing 1.75 GA/game.</li> </ul> <h3>Set-Pieces and Corners</h3> <p>Both teams trend high on corners: Celtic home games average 13.5 total corners; Hibs away 14. That makes Over 11.5 corners (1.98) a legitimate value lean if you play the secondary markets.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Hibernian’s revival ensures they won’t be spectators, but Celtic’s home defensive base and second-half profile should tell. Expect a tight first half, Celtic control, and decisive moments after the break.</p> <p><strong>Predicted range:</strong> 1–0, 2–0, or 2–1 Celtic. Our preferred score lean is 2–0.</p> <h3>Best Bets Recap</h3> <ul> <li>Celtic & Under 3.5 (2.25)</li> <li>Second Half Winner: Celtic (1.55)</li> <li>HT Draw (2.65)</li> <li>Celtic Win to Nil (2.20)</li> <li>Anytime Scorer: Benjamin Nygren (2.30)</li> </ul> <p>Weather looks benign (partly cloudy, ~15°C), squad news is stable, and the underlying numbers back a controlled Celtic win with late separation.</p> </body> </html>
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