Morton vs Ross County

<div> <h2>Morton vs Ross County: Numbers Point To A Stalemate — And Second-Half Drama</h2> <p>Greenock Morton welcome Ross County to Cappielow Park looking to keep a steady ship, while the visitors arrive under pressure after relegation and a stuttering start. The market narrowly leans towards County, but the data paints a different picture: draws dominate these teams’ profiles, particularly in Morton’s case and in County’s away sample.</p> <h3>Form & Context</h3> <p>Morton’s campaign has been defined by stability and, perhaps, conservatism. They have drawn six of seven league matches, including two of three at home. The attack is modest but functional, with Eamonn Brophy’s recent strikes providing cutting edge. Ross County’s season has been volatile: eye-catching cup results contrasted by inconsistent league form. Away from home, though, they’ve found a knack for staying alive — three draws from three trips, including two 2-2s.</p> <h3>Tactical Tendencies</h3> <p>Expect a cagey opening. Morton have not conceded a first-half goal in any of their seven league outings; their defensive spacing, especially in front of the back line, has been compact at Cappielow. County, who have often been second-best early, typically grow into matches. The real story, therefore, is after the interval: Morton’s vulnerability immediately after half-time (a cluster of concessions in the 46–60 range) meets County’s tendency to score and concede in that same window. Both sides struggle to protect leads, setting up a seesaw second half.</p> <h3>Key Matchups</h3> <ul> <li>Eamonn Brophy (Morton) vs Declan Gallagher (County): Brophy’s movement between the lines has been Morton's best route to goal. Gallagher’s experience is vital, but County’s collective shape has wobbled after the break.</li> <li>Ronan Hale (County) vs Morton’s centre-backs: Hale’s recent goals underscore a nose for second-phase chances. Morton's low concession rate before HT will test his patience, but the spaces open up after the interval.</li> <li>Midfield control: Ross Docherty’s metronomic passing can tilt territory towards County, yet Morton’s structure often funnels play wide and slows tempo in the first half.</li> </ul> <h3>What The Numbers Say</h3> <p>Morton’s draw rate is extraordinary (86% overall, 67% at home). Ross County away are 100% draws so far. Both teams have a 0% lead-defending rate, and both have high equalizing rates (Morton 67%, County 56%—100% away). County’s away matches are 2nd-half heavy: six second-half goals across three games, while Morton have conceded the bulk of their goals after HT. These aligned trends point strongly to a live in-play angle (backing the draw if someone leads), but also offer two clear pre-match edges: the full-time draw and second-half goals.</p> <h3>Odds & Value</h3> <p>The draw at 3.20 looks generous given the empirical profiles. The second-half over 1.5 at 2.20 is also attractive considering both teams’ post-interval trajectories. First-half under 1.5 at 1.40 is grounded in Morton’s immaculate first-half defensive record (zero conceded in seven). For correct score hunters, a 1-1 at 6.00 balances Morton’s low-scoring home profile with County’s habit of scoring draws away.</p> <h3>Intangibles</h3> <p>Sentiment matters: County are under scrutiny after relegation, with fans anxious about promotion credentials. Morton’s stability and home crowd should ensure a disciplined start. Weather is standard autumnal Greenock—overcast, cool, manageable—so we expect the tactical rhythms to hold.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>A tight first half gives way to an open second. The most likely outcome is a draw, with a scoring draw more probable than the market implies. Call: 1-1.</p> </div>