Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood
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<html> <head><title>Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood: Form surge meets slide</title></head> <body> <h2>Al-Fateh’s resurgence meets Al Kholood’s slump</h2> <p>Al-Fateh return to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium riding a six-match unbeaten run as they welcome an Al Kholood side struggling for traction over the last eight games. The hosts’ recent uptick — five wins in their last eight — contrasts sharply with the visitors’ three points in the same span.</p> <h3>Form and context</h3> <p>At home, Al-Fateh’s numbers have hardened. They’re taking 1.71 points per game in Al-Ahsa against a league home average of 1.45, and their last three at this venue read 2-0, 2-1, 3-1. The underlying improvement is clear: last-eight metrics show points per game up 42.9% (to 2.00), scoring up 22.6% and concessions down 21.9%. Al Kholood, 13th overall, have been trending negatively and sit just 14th in the away table with six points from seven road trips.</p> <h3>Tactical matchup and scoring profile</h3> <p>Al-Fateh’s attacking triangle — Matías Vargas, Sofiane Bendebka and Mourad Batna — has come into rhythm. Vargas leads the team with five league goals, Bendebka’s strike rate is the best on a per-90 basis (4 in 11), and Batna’s creative output (7 assists) plus penalty responsibility makes him a constant threat between the lines. Recent wins have been decisive when Al-Fateh score first: at home they average 3.00 PPG after breaking the deadlock and defend leads at an 80% clip.</p> <p>Al Kholood’s chief danger is Ramiro Enrique (7 goals). He can punish transitions and second phases, which matters because Al-Fateh tilt their production late — 58% of their home goals arrive after half-time — and games can open in the final 30 minutes. Still, Juan Cozzani’s workload (61 saves, 28 conceded in 15) underlines the pressure this back line absorbs, and it’s been costly away from home.</p> <h3>Where the goals come from</h3> <p>Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi has been a goals ground this season: Al-Fateh home matches average 3.29 total goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 71% and BTTS in 71%. Notably, their last three home wins featured scoring in both halves, a pattern consistent with their 2nd-half superiority and the visitors’ tendency to wane late.</p> <h3>Odds, value and market psychology</h3> <ul> <li>Over 2.5 @ 1.83: Implies ~54.6% but historical hit-rate is 71% for Al-Fateh home — a meaningful edge.</li> <li>BTTS Yes @ 1.62: Implies ~61.7% vs 71% home BTTS; Enrique’s presence supports the case.</li> <li>Al-Fateh Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.00: With 2+ scored in three straight home matches and Al Kholood conceding 1.87/gm, this is attractively priced.</li> <li>Al-Fateh & Over 2.5 @ 3.40: Conditional correlation is strong — 75% of Al-Fateh home wins this season cleared 2.5 goals — making this a plus-EV swing.</li> </ul> <h3>Players to watch</h3> <p><strong>Matías Vargas</strong> – Form and volume shooter; priced short in scorer markets for a reason. <strong>Mourad Batna</strong> – Set-piece and penalty threat who has been decisive in recent home victories. <strong>Sofiane Bendebka</strong> – Excellent value in anytime markets given his scoring rate and the creative supply behind him.</p> <h3>Risk management and angles</h3> <p>With Al-Fateh’s overall lead-defending rate modest (60%), The Oracle prefers goals-centric exposure over heavy handicaps. The 2nd half tends to carry more action, making “2H Over 1.5” a savvy live or pre-match angle at even money.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s verdict</h3> <p>Momentum, venue splits, and chance creation point strongly toward an Al-Fateh-positive, goals-rich game. The hosts to clear 1.5 team goals and the match to reach three or more are the most dependable leans, with “Al-Fateh & Over 2.5” reserved for the braver ticket seeking bigger upside.</p> <p><em>Suggested staking: emphasize Al-Fateh Over 1.5 Goals and Over 2.5 Goals; smaller positions on BTTS Yes and 2nd-half goals; sprinkle on Al-Fateh & Over 2.5 for value.</em></p> </body> </html>
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