Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Match Information
Match Preview
<html> <head><title>Al-Ittihad vs Al-Ahli – Jeddah Derby Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Jeddah Derby: Defensive steel meets home inconsistency</h2> <p> The Oracle sees a derby defined by discipline rather than chaos. Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive unbeaten and immaculate on the road, while Al-Ittihad have labored at King Abdullah Sports City, where goals and points have proved costly to come by. Table context underscores the stakes: Al-Ahli sit 5th on 13 points, Al-Ittihad 8th on 11, both within striking distance of the leaders but taking markedly different routes. </p> <h3>Form and venue dynamics</h3> <p> Al-Ahli’s away profile is the headline: three away matches, two wins and a draw, with zero goals conceded. That’s not a coincidence; it’s a structure. With Édouard Mendy behind a rugged pairing of Merih Demiral and Roger Ibañez, and a hard-working midfield led by Franck Kessié and Enzo Millot, they compress space, keep the box clean, and trust late moments to tilt their way. The 1-0 and 2-0 away wins at Najma and Hazm fit this template perfectly. </p> <p> Al-Ittihad’s home data paints the opposite picture. A meager 1.00 PPG, 67% failure to score, and 0 clean sheets in three home games—two ending in 0-2 defeat—show unresolved issues in ball progression and chance creation. Their one outlier, a 4-2 win, is the exception that proves the rule: at home they’ve more often been blunted, then punished. </p> <h3>Tactical matchup</h3> <p> Expect Al-Ahli’s compact 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 hybrid to funnel Al-Ittihad outside, force low-value crosses, and squeeze second balls—areas where Demiral dominates. Riyad Mahrez’s chance creation (22 key passes in seven league matches) provides controlled incision on counters and set plays, with Ivan Toney the focal point. Toney’s late-game instincts matter here: both clubs skew to second-half productivity, but Al-Ahli manage game states better, rarely trailing and defending leads at a 100% rate away. </p> <p> For Al-Ittihad, the game likely hinges on service into Karim Benzema. His finishing remains elite (3 in 4 league), but star forwards need platform and supply lines. If the midfield fails to punch through Ahli’s first press, Benzema becomes isolated against a center-back pairing built for contact. A reported doubt around Hasan Kadesh reduces overlap thrust down the left; monitor team sheets for final clarity. </p> <h3>Key numbers favor a tighter scoreline</h3> <ul> <li>Al-Ahli away: 0.00 GA, 3/3 clean sheets, BTTS Yes 0%.</li> <li>Al-Ittihad at home: 67% failed to score; 1.33 GF, 2.00 GA.</li> <li>Under 2.5: hit in 3/3 Al-Ahli away matches and 2/3 Al-Ittihad home games.</li> <li>Lead dynamics: Al-Ahli away 100% lead-defending; Ittihad home equalizing rate 0%.</li> </ul> <p> These indicators converge on a low-event away tilt. The Oracle projects a strong edge on Under 2.5 and Al-Ahli Draw No Bet. BTTS No is also mispriced, given Al-Ahli’s away clean-sheet trend and Ittihad’s home drought. </p> <h3>Individuals to watch</h3> <p> For Al-Ahli, Mendy’s command and Demiral/Ibañez aerial control have been the bedrock. Mahrez remains the creative hub, drawing markers and sliding runners in behind. Toney’s penalty-box craft is the difference-maker in tight contests. </p> <p> For Al-Ittihad, Benzema’s gravity can turn half-chances into goals, but he’ll need better sequences into Zone 14. Watch Mahamadou Doumbia’s vertical carrying; if he can punch through the first line, Ittihad’s probability of breaking the clean-sheet wall rises. </p> <h3>The Oracle’s verdict</h3> <p> The data-weighted angle is clear: Al-Ahli’s defensive reliability away from home should suppress Ittihad’s already-muted home attack. With the away side rarely conceding first and defending leads flawlessly on their travels, Al-Ahli +0 (DNB) offers pragmatic upside. The market’s expectation of goals is too optimistic relative to venue-specific splits, making Under 2.5 and BTTS No value-rich. An exact 0-1 aligns strongly with the underlying. </p> <p><strong>Best bets:</strong> Under 2.5, Al-Ahli DNB, BTTS No. Derby intensity, yes—but the numbers point to control, not chaos.</p> </body> </html>
Betting Odds
Odds are currently unavailable.
Odds are provided for informational purposes. Please gamble responsibly.
AI Analysis & Predictions
Get comprehensive AI-powered analysis for this match with our advanced prediction models. Our AI considers team form, head-to-head records, player statistics, and real-time data to provide accurate insights.
- Real-time match predictions
- In-depth statistical analysis
- Live odds monitoring
- Expert betting insights