CFR 1907 Cluj vs AFC Hermannstadt
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<html> <head> <title>CFR Cluj vs Hermannstadt – Data-Led Betting Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>CFR Cluj vs AFC Hermannstadt: Form, Timing, and Value</h2> <p>Dr. Constantin Rădulescu hosts two sides seeking traction. CFR Cluj’s winless run and defensive fragility meet a Hermannstadt team that struggles for goals, especially away, but finishes games stronger than it starts. With both clubs in the bottom half (CFR 13th with a game in hand; Hermannstadt 12th), pressure and pragmatism shape the stakes.</p> <h3>Venue-specific dynamics</h3> <p>CFR’s home profile is chaotic: 1.00 PPG with 1.67 GF and 2.00 GA. They’ve drawn 50% at home, and crucially, kept zero clean sheets. Their matches at Cluj-Napoca average 3.67 total goals and hit Over 2.5 67% of the time. Hermannstadt away are a tighter outfit (0.83 PPG; 0.67 GF, 1.17 GA) with an Under-leaning profile, but they’ve also kept 0 away clean sheets, so one goal tends to open games up.</p> <h3>Current form and momentum</h3> <p>CFR’s last 8 show a dip: 0.63 PPG (−30% vs season), four consecutive draws and nine without a win highlight fragility when leading (lead-defending rate just 11%). Hermannstadt trend slightly better over the last 8 (1.00 PPG), including a late 2-1 away win at Rapid Bucharest. Rest-wise, CFR come in roughly six days after a 2-2 derby at U Cluj; Hermannstadt had a longer window after the 0-1 vs Argeș, useful for recovery and tactical prep.</p> <h3>Goal timing: the decisive edge</h3> <p>This match tilts toward second-half action. Hermannstadt away have scored 0 first-half goals and 100% of their away goals after the interval, with an average first goal minute of 81. CFR’s concessions swell between 46–60 and 76–90. The intersection is clear: if the game is level or if CFR lead, Hermannstadt’s late pressure is live.</p> <h3>Situational metrics that matter</h3> <ul> <li>CFR when scoring first: just 1.40 PPG, well below league norms; they surrender leads (equalizer goals conceded 8 vs 9 leads overall).</li> <li>Hermannstadt when conceding first: 0.63–0.80 PPG (overall/away), not good but adequate to force draws against brittle leaders.</li> <li>Time states: CFR spend 27% trailing and 24% trailing at home; Hermannstadt away trail 37% but rarely collapse.</li> </ul> <h3>Over/Under and BTTS</h3> <p>Model tension: CFR are an “Over” team; Hermannstadt away are “Under.” Two factors tip the scale toward goals: CFR’s 0% clean sheet rate and 83% home BTTS, plus Hermannstadt’s second-half scoring pattern that punishes CFR’s post-HT vulnerabilities. The market offers Over 2.25 at 1.75 and BTTS Yes at 1.93; both are supported by the total-goals and BTTS deltas vs league averages (CFR 3.50 total goals per game vs 2.60 league; 90% BTTS vs 60% league).</p> <h3>Player trends and likely flow</h3> <p>CFR’s most consistent threats are Meriton Korenica (3G, 2A, 26 key passes) and Virgil Postolachi (2G in 209’)—both active between lines and in the half-spaces. Damjan Djokovic adds 2G from midfield. For Hermannstadt, Sergiu Buș (3G) is the finisher, while Silviu Balaure (5 assists) and Cristian Neguț (1G, 1A) supply width and cutbacks. Keeper Cătălin Căbuz (27 saves, 6.93) has been busy—and resilient.</p> <h3>Tactical expectations</h3> <p>Cluj should control territory and chance volume early, but their low lead-defending rate invites late volatility. Expect Hermannstadt to set a compact mid-block, accept a low-tempo first half, then commit runners (Neguț, Balaure) and Buș to transitions after the hour. This script aligns with “2nd half highest scoring” and “Away to score.”</p> <h3>Value summary</h3> <ul> <li>Away to score (1.65): anchored by CFR’s 0% clean sheet stat and late-conceding pattern.</li> <li>2nd half highest scoring (2.10): extreme timing skew on both sides post-HT.</li> <li>Over 2.25 Goals (1.75): CFR’s game-state chaos drives goal counts; a half-win safety if it lands on 2.</li> <li>Draw (3.65): CFR’s draw bias (60% overall; four straight) and inability to protect leads add fair upside.</li> </ul> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Expect a cagey opening and a livelier second half with Hermannstadt finding at least one goal. The most robust edges are “Hermannstadt to score,” “2nd half highest scoring,” and a goals angle via Over 2.25. Given CFR’s chronic lead-management issues, the draw remains very live at a generous price.</p> </body> </html>
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