Wisla Plock vs GKS Katowice
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<html> <head> <title>Wisła Płock vs GKS Katowice – Data-Led Match Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Form Guide and Context</h2> <p>Wisła Płock return to Płock aiming to steady the ship after back-to-back league defeats, while GKS Katowice arrive on the back of two straight losses without scoring. The home/away split is stark: Wisła have taken 12 points from 5 at home (80% win rate), conceding just 0.40 per game. Katowice, by contrast, have lost all four away fixtures, scoring just once (0.25 per game) and conceding 11.</p> <h2>Key Statistical Matchups</h2> <ul> <li>Home clean sheets vs away bluntness: Wisła home clean sheet rate 60%; Katowice away failed-to-score 75%.</li> <li>Game state dominance: Wisła defend leads at home 100% of the time; Katowice away trail for 65% of minutes and have 0.00 PPG when conceding first.</li> <li>First-half narrative: Wisła lead at half in 60% of home matches; Katowice have been behind at half in 100% of away matches.</li> <li>Late tilt: Katowice away have conceded 5 goals in minutes 76–90; Wisła home have scored twice in that window.</li> </ul> <h2>Tactics and Personnel</h2> <p>Wisła’s organization without the ball underpins their home success. GK Rafał Leszczyński’s early-season numbers (7.14 rating, 23 saves) and the Edmundsson–Haglind-Sangré partnership provide stability, while Marcin Kamiński adds aerial presence and set-piece threat. Dani Pacheco’s 20 key passes and Jime’s direct running feed striker Łukasz Sekulski (4 goals), with Iban Salvador pressing and drawing fouls high up the pitch.</p> <p>Katowice lean on Bartosz Nowak (4 goals, 15/16 shots on target) for end product, with support from wide midfielder Borja Galán and full-backs like Alan Czerwiński. However, away production has been minimal and the side has struggled to work quality shots when pressed into deeper blocks.</p> <h2>Totals and BTTS: The Right Angle</h2> <p>There’s a totals tug-of-war: Wisła’s home profile trends under (only 20% over 2.5; total goals 1.80), while Katowice’s away sample has seen 75% over 2.5 due largely to heavy concessions. The better harmonized angle is BTTS No: Wisła home BTTS just 20%, Katowice away BTTS 25%, and three of four Katowice away losses were to nil.</p> <h2>Market Value Check</h2> <ul> <li>Home win (1.97): Implied ~51%; venue stats suggest closer to 65–70% on performance—clear value.</li> <li>BTTS No (2.10): Implied ~48% vs venue-derived expectation around 70%—strong value.</li> <li>Half-time Wisła (2.60): Katowice 100% HT away losses; Wisła 60% HT home leads—pricing looks generous.</li> <li>Home win to nil (3.65): Wisła’s 60% home CS and Katowice’s 75% away FTS suggest notable overlay (correlated with BTTS No).</li> <li>Correct score 2–0 (8.50): Matches cluster around 1–0/2–0 at this venue; 2–0 covers the clean-sheet angle with room for late insurance.</li> </ul> <h2>Rest, Motivation, and Conditions</h2> <p>Both teams have had a full week’s rest (last played on 19 Sep), and mild autumn conditions in Płock should suit a normal-tempo match. Wisła, pushing to consolidate a top-table slot per the provided tables, have the stronger motivational spot in front of home fans, while Katowice need to halt their away slide.</p> <h2>Red Flags and Data Integrity</h2> <p>Note a contradiction between a narrative snippet (claiming Katowice 2nd, Wisła 17th) and the structured leagueTables (Wisła 3rd, Katowice 17th). This preview relies on the structured dataset you supplied and the venue-split performance, which align strongly with the betting angles above.</p> <h2>Bottom Line</h2> <p>Venue power and situational metrics overwhelmingly favor Wisła. The best combination of edge and price appears on the home win, BTTS No, and half-time home. For bigger prices, home win to nil and a 2–0 correct score align with the statistical profile, especially given Katowice’s 75% away failed-to-score rate and late defensive drop-offs.</p> </body> </html>
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