Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau

<div> <h2>Alianza Lima vs Atlético Grau: Data-Driven Match Preview</h2> <p>Estadio Alejandro Villanueva hosts a pivotal Clausura fixture as Alianza Lima (6th) welcome Atlético Grau (8th). With both sides within touching distance of the upper pack, this match carries continental qualification implications and momentum stakes heading into October.</p> <h3>Form and Trajectory</h3> <p>Alianza Lima arrive on a positive trajectory: over the last eight league games, they’ve improved across the board—points per game up 12.6% (1.88), goals for up 12.2% (1.75), goals against down 12.0% (0.88). A commanding 4-0 home win over Comerciantes U. reset confidence after a seven-goal thriller loss to Garcilaso. Meanwhile, Grau have stabilized at home with three straight wins, but their away form still lags badly (0.80 PPG), including no win in four on the road. The form table reinforces the split: Alianza rank third over the last eight (15 pts), Grau ninth (11 pts).</p> <h3>Venue Split: Why Lima Matters</h3> <p>Villanueva consistently tilts the numbers in Alianza’s favor. The hosts average 2.20 goals per home game, generating 3.40 total match goals at this venue. Critically, they score first at home 80% of the time and have produced at least two goals in three consecutive home league matches. Grau’s away metrics are the mirror image: 1.80 goals conceded per away game, zero clean sheets, and a lead-defending rate of just 33%—an indicator they struggle to absorb pressure if they get in front.</p> <h3>Goal Flow and Timing</h3> <p>Expect a back-loaded encounter. Alianza score 71% of their goals in the second half (73% at home), with strong surges in the 46-60’ and 61-75’ windows. Grau concede heavily after the break (69% of concessions overall), including five in the 76-90’ band. That late-game asymmetry points to Alianza dominance in the second half, a trend reinforced by their improved defensive control over the last eight.</p> <h3>Situational Performance</h3> <p>Alianza’s ppg when conceding first (1.50) far exceeds league average, while Grau’s ppg when conceding first is 0.00 home and away—suggesting Grau rarely recover once they fall behind. Conversely, Alianza’s home lead-defending rate (50%) isn’t elite, which, alongside a 60% home BTTS mark, keeps the door ajar for a Grau reply—especially via transitions to Neri Bandiera or Rodrigo Vilca.</p> <h3>Tactical Layers and Likely Lineups</h3> <p>Alianza should set up to funnel attacks through Pablo Ceppelini between lines, with width from Eryc Castillo and Kevin Quevedo attacking Grau’s full-backs. The Guerrero/Barcos decision up top remains the key domino; Guerrero’s movement across the line and hold-up threat has yielded seven league goals, but Quevedo at 2.10 anytime looks the value outlet given his frequency of progressive runs and recent end product. Behind them, Zambrano and Garcés anchor in front of Viscarra, while Trauco/Enrique provide overlaps.</p> <p>Grau’s away approach typically features a compact mid-block with rapid outlets to Bandiera and support from Sandoval/Vilca. The issue is retention: Grau’s away lead-defending rate (33%) and second-half collapses have undone reasonable first halves, especially against sides who surge after HT like Alianza.</p> <h3>Markets, Value and Risk</h3> <ul> <li>Team Goals: Alianza Over 1.5 at 1.53 aligns with their 2.20 GF/home and Grau’s 1.80 GA/away plus 0% away clean sheets.</li> <li>Second-half edges: Home to win 2H at 1.75 and 2H Over 1.5 at 2.15 both leverage Alianza’s post-interval surge and Grau’s late concessions.</li> <li>HT Draw at 2.38: Heavily supported by both teams’ propensity for level halves (AL 60% home; Grau 60% away) and Alianza’s 78% overall HT draws.</li> <li>BTTS Yes at 2.05: A venue-split play (AL 60% home BTTS; Grau 80% away). While Alianza keep 40% home clean sheets, the price compensates.</li> <li>Anytime Scorer: Kevin Quevedo 2.10 presents a favorable blend of role, recent form, and match script (most Alianza threat arrives after HT, where Quevedo thrives).</li> </ul> <h3>Context and Intangibles</h3> <p>Rest favors Grau slightly (six days from 26 Sep), but Alianza’s squad depth and home support mitigate. Media sentiment frames this as a tight affair due to recent frustrations in chance conversion; however, the underlying numbers tilt toward a productive Alianza attack at home and second-half separation.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Alianza Lima 2-1 Atlético Grau. Hosts to assert after halftime, with Grau dangerous enough in transition to threaten BTTS, but their away defensive fragility should be decisive.</p> </div>