Alianza Universidad vs Sport Boys

<div> <h2>Alianza Universidad vs Sport Boys: Form, Value and Where the Numbers Point</h2> <p>Alianza Universidad host Sport Boys at the Estadio Heraclio Tapia in Huánuco on Friday, with both teams looking to stabilize after uneven starts. The market makes Alianza Universidad clear favourites at 1.70, but the deeper numbers — particularly venue splits and late-game tendencies — tell a more nuanced story with a couple of attractive value angles.</p> <h3>Context and Motivation</h3> <p>Alianza Universidad come in 14th, marginally ahead of Sport Boys (18th). Both sides endured difficult 2024 campaigns, reshaped their squads, and enter 2025 with moderate expectations. Media sentiment suggests Alianza will emphasize defensive organization, while Sport Boys are betting on a younger core to raise energy levels, albeit with inconsistency. Conditions in Huánuco are expected to be mild and dry, so weather shouldn’t distort the match profile.</p> <h3>Venue Split: Home Wobbles vs Away Woes</h3> <p>Alianza’s home split remains weak: just 0.75 PPG at home, with 2.00 goals conceded per match and a 0% home clean sheet rate. Sport Boys are poor travelers (0.40 PPG away), but their away matches average 2.20 total goals and they draw 40% on the road — a critical number when you’re evaluating “home not to win” props. Alianza have failed to win three of four at home.</p> <h3>Momentum and Recent Patterns</h3> <p>Alianza have dropped two straight without scoring, though their last eight show mild improvement in attack (+13% GF). Sport Boys are winless in five, but their last outing (2-2 at Cienciano) was encouraging. The form table for the last eight matches places Alianza mid-table and Sport Boys bottom three, but this match-up is tilted by Alianza’s specific home issues rather than general form alone.</p> <h3>Goal Timing: Why the Second Half Matters</h3> <p>This game has second-half fingerprints. Alianza score 56% and concede 53% of their goals in the second half; Sport Boys on the road score 67% of their goals after the break. Add Alianza’s late home concessions (three goals allowed in minutes 76–90) to Sport Boys’ late away scoring (two in 76–90), and “Second Half as Highest Scoring Half” at 2.05 becomes logical value. It also supports angles like “Sport Boys to score last.”</p> <h3>Totals and BTTS</h3> <p>Despite low season-long goal averages, the venue splits pull the total upward: Over 2.5 landed in 75% of Alianza’s home games and 60% of Sport Boys’ away games. The Over 2.5 price of 1.85 implies only ~54% and looks light relative to the data. BTTS is trickier: Sport Boys’ overall BTTS rate is just 22%, while Alianza’s home BTTS is 50%. If playing that market, BTTS No at 1.91 holds slight value over BTTS Yes at 1.80.</p> <h3>Key Players and Match-Ups</h3> <p>For Alianza, Yorleys Mena (9 goals) remains the focal point and benefits from Marcos Lliuya’s chance creation (5 assists, 66 key passes). For Sport Boys, Alejandro Hohberg is the headline threat (9 goals, 7 assists), supported by Luis Urruti and Hernán Da Campo. In goal, Steven Rivadeneyra’s shot-stopping has repeatedly kept Boys competitive away from home.</p> <h3>Best Value Bets</h3> <ul> <li>Draw or Sport Boys (Double Chance) at 2.10 — Alianza fail to win 75% at home; Boys draw 40% away. The price implies ~48%, leaving headroom.</li> <li>Highest Scoring Half: Second Half at 2.05 — Both teams’ scoring/conceding distributions tilt after the break.</li> <li>Over 2.5 Goals at 1.85 — Alignment of both venue splits (75% and 60%) supports a higher goal count than the market implies.</li> <li>Sport Boys to Score Last at 2.62 — Alianza’s late concessions vs Boys’ late away goals create a strong correlation.</li> </ul> <h3>Tactical Watch</h3> <p>Expect Alianza to seek control through Lliuya’s passing and get Mena into early channel runs. Sport Boys will likely sit compact and push the tempo after halftime, where their youth and pace can stretch Alianza’s back line. Set plays could be decisive given Colombo/Almirón’s aerial presence and Alianza’s home defensive fragility.</p> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>The match price looks a shade short on the home side relative to how poor Alianza have been at Huánuco. The smarter value lies in protecting against a home win (Draw/Away), leaning into second-half action, and siding with totals pushed up by these venue-specific patterns.</p> </div>