Cusco vs ADT

<div> <h2>Cusco vs ADT – Data-Driven Preview, Odds and Angles</h2> <p>Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega hosts a meeting between a perfect-at-home Cusco and an ADT side that has yet to claim a single point away in the Clausura. Bookmakers make the leaders clear favourites, and the underlying numbers justify that stance.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Cusco sit top of the form charts with 22 points from eight, unbeaten, and with four wins from four at home. Their last outing was a composed 1–0 victory away to Ayacucho. ADT arrive buoyed by a 3–1 home win over UTC Cajamarca, but their road form is stark: three trips, three losses, and only one away goal scored in the Clausura.</p> <h3>Venue Split: The Decider</h3> <p>Cusco’s home split is emphatic: 3.00 PPG, 2.00 goals scored and just 0.50 conceded per game, with a 75% clean-sheet rate. ADT’s away numbers are the mirror image: 0.00 PPG, 0.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded, with a 67% failed-to-score rate. Add in that ADT have conceded the first goal in 100% of their road matches, and you get a strong tilt towards early Cusco control.</p> <h3>Game Flow and Timing</h3> <p>The flow suggests a match where the home side can build a platform by halftime. Cusco have led at halftime in 75% of home matches; ADT have trailed at halftime in 67% of away games and spent 65% of their away minutes behind. ADT’s threat tends to come late (average away minute scored: 82), but Cusco defend leads well (80% leadDefendingRate at home), limiting the scope for late drama.</p> <h3>Key Players and Matchups</h3> <p>Facundo Callejo headlines for Cusco with 20 league goals. He’s supplied by a creative axis of Iván Colman (5G, 11A) and Lucas Colitto, while Nicolás Silva adds penetration from wide areas. Behind them, a robust defensive group—Ampuero, Saravia, Ruidías, and Aldair Fuentes—has anchored the clean-sheet record, with Pedro Díaz outstanding in goal (7.36 league rating).</p> <p>ADT’s main spark is Johnny Vidales (13G), supported by Joao Rojas and Victor Cedrón. On the road, however, their attack’s productivity drops sharply, with no first-half away goals in the Clausura and limited shot quality.</p> <h3>Totals and BTTS Outlook</h3> <p>Totals markets lean under. Cusco have seen over 2.5 in just 25% of games (the same at home), while ADT away hit over 2.5 in 33%. BTTS is suppressed by two forces: Cusco’s 75% home clean sheets and ADT’s 67% away FTS. Those indicators make BTTS No and even Win to Nil attractive compared with the prices on offer.</p> <h3>Where the Value Lies</h3> <ul> <li>BTTS No at 1.95 looks underpriced versus a data-driven estimate near 70% for a “No” outcome.</li> <li>HT/FT Home/Home at 2.20 aligns with the halftime tendencies of both sides.</li> <li>Win to Nil (2.75) benefits from the intersection of Cusco shutouts and ADT away blanks.</li> <li>Under 2.5 at 2.15 fits the muted ADT away attack and Cusco’s preference for control.</li> <li>Exact Score 2–0 (6.50) echoes Cusco’s most common home result and ADT’s scoring droughts away.</li> </ul> <h3>Risk Factors</h3> <p>Small-sample volatility remains a consideration in early-to-mid season data. Cusco did concede very early once at home (skewing the “average minute conceded first”), and ADT do generate late surges. Still, Cusco’s equalizingRate (100%) and lead defense mitigate those risks.</p> <h3>Projected Match Pattern</h3> <p>Expect a proactive Cusco from the outset, pressing for an early breakthrough, then controlling territory and transitions. ADT may stabilize after the interval and look for late counters through Vidales and Rojas, but the hosts’ compact block and set-piece threat should carry them through.</p> <h3>Best Bet Summary</h3> <p>BTTS No is the standout, supported by multiple independent indicators. HT/FT Home/Home and Win to Nil provide plus-money exposure to Cusco dominance, while Under 2.5 covers a controlled, professional home performance.</p> </div>