Atlético Tembetary vs Olimpia
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<html> <head> <title>A. Tembetary vs Olimpia – Odds, Form, and Tactical Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Match Context</h2> <p>Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni hosts two underperforming sides as Atlético Tembetary welcome Olimpia in the Clausura. Tembetary sit bottom with 6 points from 13, under relegation pressure; Olimpia are 10th with 13 points, struggling to find rhythm and consistency. Public sentiment is harsh on both, though the weight of expectation still falls on Olimpia’s shoulders.</p> <h3>Form Guide</h3> <p>Recent trends are revealing. Tembetary’s last eight have improved on their season baseline (0.75 PPG vs 0.46, +63%), including a benchmark 3–0 home win over Trinidense and draws with Nacional and Cerro Porteño. Olimpia, by contrast, are in a downward drift (0.63 PPG last eight, -37% vs season), with five losses in their last eight. Crucially, Olimpia’s away form is alarming: 0.17 PPG (0W-1D-5L), conceding three goals per game on the road.</p> <h3>Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Olimpia away: 3.00 GA, lead-defending rate 0% — they cannot protect advantages outside Asunción.</li> <li>Tembetary home: 1.33 GF, 1.50 GA — modest but competitive, and markedly stronger than Olimpia’s away returns.</li> <li>Goal environment: Tembetary 3.08 total goals/match; Olimpia 3.15 (away 4.17). Expect goals.</li> <li>BTTS: Tembetary 69% overall; Olimpia away 67% (league average 49%).</li> </ul> <h3>Goal Timing & Tactical Outlook</h3> <p>Two clear timing patterns shape this contest. First, Olimpia concede extremely early away (average first conceded at 8 minutes), which opens the door for Tembetary to strike first with fast starts (home average first goal at 20 minutes). Second, Tembetary bleed late: 77% of their concessions arrive after the interval, particularly in the 61–90 window. Combine that with Olimpia’s own second-half wobble (majority of their GA after HT, especially away), and the model strongly prefers the second half to outscore the first.</p> <p>Tembetary are likely to press aggressively in the opening quarter-hour, seeking an early advantage. Olimpia’s best response lanes are in transition and set-pieces, where the likes of Richard Ortiz and Rodney Redes have contributed in recent weeks. Yet, their inability to defend leads on the road has turned many promising positions into disappointment.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Atlético Tembetary: Gabriel Gudiño (finishing threat), E. Yegros and Duván Zárate have been recent scorers; their movement between lines can unsettle an away defense that’s often caught square.</li> <li>Olimpia: Richard Ortiz’s engine and timing into the box remains vital; Rodney Redes offers verticality. Robert Rojas adds quality at the back, but the unit’s collective issues away persist.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds & Value</h3> <p>Market pricing leans heavily toward Olimpia (1.62 away win), echoing their 2025 head-to-head dominance. But the underlying away metrics are brutal, and Tembetary’s recent uptick adds resistance. The standout value is Tembetary +0.5 (2.25), effectively paying you for the draw against a side with 0.17 away PPG. Goals angles also rate strongly: BTTS Yes (1.80) given both teams’ BTTS rates well above league norms; Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half (2.05) fits both teams’ late-goal profiles; and an adventurous Over 3.5 (3.10) exploits the high-volatility nature of Olimpia’s away matches.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Tembetary can get something here if they start well and manage the inevitable late turbulence. Expect swings and a strong second-half. The numbers favor a draw or narrow home result in a game with chances at both ends.</p> <p><strong>Pick:</strong> Draw or Tembetary on the handicap; BTTS Yes. Correct-score lean: 1–1.</p> </body> </html>
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