hodd vs Moss

<div> <h3>Hødd vs Moss: Mid-table tug at Høddvoll</h3> <p>Hødd welcome Moss to Nye Høddvoll Stadion on September 20 in a matchup that feels pivotal for mid-table footing. The hosts sit ninth with 27 points, a whisker ahead of Moss in 11th on 26. Both sides have shown flashes, but their venue splits are stark—and that’s likely to define the contest.</p> <h3>Venue splits define the matchup</h3> <p>Hødd’s home profile is steady if unspectacular: 1.40 points per game at Høddvoll, 40% wins, and 1.40 goals scored. That’s more than enough to punish a Moss outfit whose away numbers are among the league’s softest—0.36 points per game, zero away wins, 64% defeats, and 2.45 goals conceded per game on their travels. The first-goal pattern is equally telling: Hødd score first in 60% of home matches, while Moss concede first in 73% away with a lead-defending rate away from home of 0%.</p> <h3>Form and context</h3> <p>Recent momentum shades slightly toward Moss overall (last-8 ppg +5.9% vs season), but that is driven by home strength. Hødd just snapped a six-match league drought with a gutsy 2-1 away win at Odd, which should lift confidence. Moss are unbeaten in two (3-1 vs Mjøndalen, 1-1 at Skeid), yet their away scoring remains sparse at 0.91 goals per game and they still fail to score in 45% of away fixtures.</p> <h3>When the goals arrive</h3> <p>This game screams second-half action. Hødd concede 57% of their goals after the break (at home it’s 67%), while Moss away score 80% of their goals in the second half and concede 59% after HT. Both teams have significant 76–90-minute activity: Hødd’s late concessions, Moss’ late goals and collapses. Add a forecast of light rain and wind in Ulsteinvik, and the recipe favors late mistakes, transitions, and set-pieces deciding the result.</p> <h3>Key actors and tactical subplots</h3> <p>Hødd’s keeper Marius Amundsen Ulla (7.21 rating) has been a steady presence behind a defense that can wobble late. Going forward, Isak Skotheim (4 goals, 7.47 rating) and Sebastian Haugland (involved in multiple recent goals) give Hødd a dribble-and-arrival threat between the lines—an area Moss often leave exposed when chasing games.</p> <p>For Moss, Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsen’s penalty pedigree and Sigurd Grønli’s timing in the box have been crucial—but most of their productivity is at Melløs (71% of goals at home). Away, head coach Thomas Myhre’s side often sit too deep early, then open up late—precisely when opponents punish them.</p> <h3>Numbers vs market</h3> <ul> <li>Hødd Draw No Bet looks mispriced at 1.72 given Moss’ away floor (0 wins, 0.36 ppg) and Hødd’s above-average lead protection at home (67%).</li> <li>Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 is sensible: Hødd home TG 2.90 + Moss away TG 3.36, Moss away over-2.5 at 64%.</li> <li>Second half highest scoring at 2.05 is supported by goal timing splits for both sides.</li> <li>Hødd to score first at 1.83 aligns with a 60% home first-goal rate vs Moss’ 18% away.</li> </ul> <h3>Projected flow</h3> <p>Expect Hødd to start on the front foot, targeting early field position and set pieces. Moss’ conservative away openers point to Hødd gaining the initiative and forcing Moss to chase after the interval. That game-state favors more space, more transition opportunities, and the late-goal profile that has defined both teams’ seasons.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Hødd’s home edge and Moss’ entrenched away issues make the hosts the prudent side on Draw No Bet, with a goals angle tilted to the second half. If you want a bigger price, Hødd to win at 2.30 is a justified sprinkle. For a prop, Skotheim anytime at 4.75 gives you a live runner against a defense that regularly yields chances after 60 minutes.</p> </div>