Ballymena United vs Coleraine FC
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<html> <head><title>Ballymena United vs Coleraine – Tactical Preview, Odds & Value Picks</title></head> <body> <h2>Derby Day at the Showgrounds: Can Ballymena Break Coleraine’s Rhythm?</h2> <p>This County Antrim derby arrives with contrasting profiles: Ballymena United have been binary at home—either keeping things tight and winning to nil or failing to land a punch—while Coleraine travel with a clear identity of disciplined defending and incisive surges either side of half time. The market makes Coleraine favourites around 1.70, and the underlying data broadly agrees.</p> <h3>Form and Momentum</h3> <p>Ballymena’s season line (1.60 PPG) has dipped across the last eight (1.25 PPG), with goals against rising by 25.5% versus their season average. They did arrest a mini-slide with a composed 1-2 win at Carrick Rangers, but home outputs remain polarized: 1-0, 4-0, 0-2, 0-2. Notably, there hasn’t been a home BTTS yet.</p> <p>Coleraine, third in the table, have banked 19 points from nine and carry a strong 2.00 PPG away with 2.20 GF and 0.80 GA on their travels. A 2-1 loss at Bangor last time was a setback, but performances on the road—four goals at Crusaders and Portadown—show the ceiling. They trail for only 14% of game time overall and defend a lead at a 75% clip.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Ballymena under the lights at the Showgrounds tend to start fast or flat-line; their average minute conceded first at home (20’) shows vulnerability to early pressure. Coleraine’s away scoring clusters in 31-45 and 76-90 indicate patience and late power. That interaction matters: Ballymena’s home equalising rate is 0%—when they fall behind, they struggle to change the state of play.</p> <p>Expect Coleraine to control territory without over-committing, looking for switches into wide runners and late-arriving midfielders around the interval. Ballymena’s best route is a compact 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 block, aiming to nick the first goal and then sit—at home, their lead-defending rate is 100%. But if they concede first, the tactical script flips in Coleraine’s favour.</p> <h3>Key Numbers Driving the Bets</h3> <ul> <li>Ballymena at home: 50% failed to score; 50% clean sheets; BTTS 0%.</li> <li>Coleraine away: 60% wins, 40% clean sheets; GA 0.80; over 2.5 hits 80% but often via one-sided scores.</li> <li>Game-state: Ballymena PPG when conceding first at home is 0.00; Coleraine PPG when scoring first is 2.50.</li> <li>Timing: Coleraine strong 31-45 and 76-90; Ballymena have conceded late overall (76-90 GA 3).</li> </ul> <h3>Odds, Value, and How to Play It</h3> <p>The headline angle is the away clean sheet at 2.25. Ballymena’s 50% home FTS plus Coleraine’s away CS rate (40%) and excellent game-state management make this a live value line, particularly in a derby that trends to one-sided outcomes here. The straight Coleraine win at 1.70 is fairly priced and still a shade of value against an estimated 60–62% win probability.</p> <p>Totals are tricky because Coleraine’s away matches run hot for goals, but Ballymena’s home profile drags the volatility down. Under 3.5 at 1.36 fits the venue trend and derby intensity. For those who like a bolder position on rhythm, second-half under 1.5 at 1.70 is a sneaky value based on the Showgrounds’ muted second halves so far, acknowledging sample-size caveats.</p> <h3>Prop Spotlight</h3> <p>If you want a bigger swing that still follows the core thesis, 0-2 at 8.00 maps cleanly to Coleraine win + away clean sheet + under. It captures the likely pattern: Coleraine’s control, Ballymena struggle to chase, and a late away clincher.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>The Oracle expects Coleraine’s structure and game-state strength to tell over 90 minutes. Back the Bannsiders to come away with the points, with the clean-sheet angle and a restrained goal count making up the rest of the staking plan.</p> </body> </html>
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