NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar
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<html> <head> <title>NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar – Data-Led Match Preview</title> <meta name="description" content="Statistical preview, betting angles and team news for NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar, Eredivisie, 28 Sept 2025." /> </head> <body> <h1>NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar: Styles Clash at De Goffert</h1> <h2>Context & Stakes</h2> <p>NEC Nijmegen welcome AZ Alkmaar to Goffertstadion with both clubs in contrasting moods. AZ are unbeaten to start the league, riding a longer multi-competition streak and nudged by expectations to challenge the top three. NEC, perched mid-table, have been explosive at home but inconsistent overall. With European ambitions fueling AZ and NEC targeting statement points against a big side, the tactical balance is delicate.</p> <h2>Team News & Availability</h2> <ul> <li>NEC: Bram Nuytinck is out. NEC’s attack has been spread across experienced heads Tjaronn Chery and Bryan Linssen, with Koki Ogawa dangerous in the box.</li> <li>AZ: Seiya Maikuma remains sidelined; significant note that last season’s leading scorer Troy Parrott is also indicated to be unavailable. That shifts the load onto Mexx Meerdink, Denso Kasius and Sven Mijnans for end-product.</li> </ul> <h2>Form Guide & Momentum</h2> <p>NEC’s start has been high-event: 19 goals scored and 12 conceded through six, with every match sailing past 2.5 goals. They’ve scored in every game and in each of their three home fixtures. AZ’s five-match slate shows controlled efficiency: two away wins and a draw, just three conceded on the road, and a penchant for late resilience—equalizing rate at a perfect 100% so far.</p> <h2>Tactical Themes</h2> <p>Two timing trends should define this contest. First, NEC’s “fast start at home” is more than narrative—they’ve scored in the first half of all three games at De Goffert. They hit early against Excelsior and NAC, and even cracked PSV in a chaotic 3–5. Second, both teams skew heavier after the interval: NEC produce 74% of their goals in the second half, while AZ’s away output is 60% post-HT. Expect a measured first half with chances both ways, then a more open, stretched game state as legs tire and space appears.</p> <h2>Numbers That Matter</h2> <ul> <li>NEC home: 3.67 GF, 1.67 GA; 5.33 total goals per game.</li> <li>AZ away: 1.67 GF, 1.00 GA; 2.67 total, but 100% away half-time draws.</li> <li>BTTS profile: AZ 80% overall; NEC 67% overall (33% at home due to two clean sheets vs weaker opponents).</li> </ul> <h2>Matchups & Player Watch</h2> <p>AZ’s back line—Wouter Goes, Alexandre Penetra and the dynamic Denso Kasius—has been solid in structure and dangerous in transition. Kasius’s surging runs and shooting threat (two league goals) are a real outlet in Parrott’s absence. For NEC, Chery’s guile between lines (three goals, all at home) plus Linssen’s movement and Ogawa’s penalty-box instincts make them tough to keep out—especially early on, backed by energetic wide play from Basar Önal and Vito van Crooij.</p> <h2>What The Market Might Miss</h2> <p>Markets respect AZ’s unbeaten start but may be underpricing NEC’s first-half scoring at home. With AZ away half-times all level and two first-half concessions in three, a 1–1 HT isn’t far-fetched. Then, per both teams’ 2nd-half bias, the game tilts toward a more open conclusion—where AZ’s equalizing knack and bigger-squad resilience could make the difference.</p> <h2>Weather & Conditions</h2> <p>Early autumn in Nijmegen should be kind: cloudy to partly sunny, 13–18°C, light winds, low rain probability. Ideal for a high-tempo technical game with late energy still on display.</p> <h2>Projection</h2> <p>Expect NEC to make a punchy start and land early attempts, but the match should grow into the second half. If AZ absorb the initial thrust, their late-game organization and substitutes could edge proceedings. A 1–2 away win sits neatly with both statistical profiles and the odds—while keeping room for volatility in a high-event league.</p> <h2>Best Bets Recap</h2> <ul> <li>NEC to score 1st half – Yes (2.12)</li> <li>Over 2.5 goals (1.70)</li> <li>Highest scoring half – 2nd (1.95)</li> <li>HT/FT Draw/AZ (5.25) as a price play</li> </ul> <p>Banker is the NEC first-half goal at plus money; the rest lean into the high-event tendencies and AZ’s away-state profile. Stake sensibly—early-season variance remains in play.</p> </body> </html>
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