AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle
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<html> <head><title>AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle: Data-Led Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Match Overview</h2> <p>AZ Alkmaar welcome PEC Zwolle to the AFAS Stadion with the bookmakers making the hosts clear favourites (Home 1.29, Draw 5.40, Away 8.80). AZ’s early-season form is strong and sentiment around the club is positive, while PEC arrive on a run of three consecutive defeats, seeking stability.</p> <h3>Team News and Tactical Notes</h3> <p>AZ’s headline absentee is Troy Parrott, the early leading scorer, while Seiya Maikuma is also unavailable. Even so, AZ’s chance creation remains diversified: <em>Mexx Meerdink</em> is expected to lead the line, with <em>Ernest Poku</em> offering verticality from wide areas and <em>Denso Kasius</em> providing aggressive overlaps from right-back. AZ have spread goals among Meerdink, Kasius, and others, softening the Parrott blow.</p> <p>PEC Zwolle list Jasper Schendelaar, Tristan Gooijer, and Odysseus Velanas as out. Young keeper <em>Tom de Graaff</em> has impressed (17 saves in 4), but this is a stern test. In attack, <em>Koen Kostons</em> (two away goals) and <em>Kaj de Rooij</em> are the main threats on transition.</p> <h3>Form and Underlying Tendencies</h3> <ul> <li>AZ are unbeaten (3W, 2D) and average 2.4 goals per game, with a prominent late-scoring trend (4 goals in 76–90’).</li> <li>At home, AZ have produced goal-heavy contests: 4-1 (Groningen) and 3-3 (Feyenoord); 100% Over 3.5 and 100% BTTS.</li> <li>PEC’s season is split: decent away output (1.5 GF) but their overall attack lags (0.8 GF). They’ve lost three straight.</li> </ul> <h3>Key Matchups</h3> <p>AZ’s right-side combination of Kasius and Poku versus PEC’s left defensive lane (Aertssen/MacNulty) is pivotal. Kasius has been an on-ball outlet and direct shooting threat. In midfield, <em>Jordy Clasie</em> and <em>Kees Smit</em> should control tempo against PEC’s industrious trio of <em>Ryan Thomas</em>, <em>Jamiro Monteiro</em>, and <em>Thijs Oosting</em>. PEC’s plan likely trends to a mid/low block, compressing the box and hoping Kostons can spring counters into the channels.</p> <h3>Game State and Live Angles</h3> <p>Data suggests AZ score first at home (100%) and PEC’s equalizing rate is 0%; yet AZ have a low lead-defending rate (33% at home) and frequently allow game re-entry. That cocktail creates two repeated live patterns: a first AZ goal, followed by an open second half. With both teams showing late action (AZ 76–90’ GF 4; PEC 76–90’ GA 3 overall), total goals in the final 30 minutes are a realistic expectation.</p> <h3>Odds and Value Read</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Second-half Over 1.5 @ 1.70</strong>: Supported by AZ’s late surges and PEC’s late concessions; both AZ’s home matches cleared this line after halftime.</li> <li><strong>BTTS Yes @ 1.83</strong>: AZ home CS 0% and BTTS 100%. PEC have scored in both away matches; they are likelier to nick one than keep AZ out.</li> <li><strong>AZ -1.0 Asian @ 1.42</strong>: Class gap, field tilt, and first-goal control favour a multi-goal margin with push protection.</li> <li><strong>Draw/AZ HT/FT @ 4.20</strong>: AZ’s high half-time draw rate (80% overall) plus their second-half strength yields an attractive longshot.</li> </ul> <h3>Projected Flow</h3> <p>Expect AZ to control possession and territory, creating volume from wide-to-box patterns and late waves from midfield. PEC will rely on a compact shell and direct breaks through Kostons and de Rooij. With Parrott absent, AZ’s finishing ceiling is a touch lower, but chance volume and spread of scorers should remain high enough to secure the points.</p> <h3>Best Bet Summary</h3> <p>The data cluster favours second-half goals and BTTS, with AZ to cover a light handicap. A 3-1 correct score (8.50) fits the statistical profile: AZ’s heavy home scoring, PEC’s away goal capability, and AZ’s tendency to concede while still winning comfortably.</p> </body> </html>
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