Willem II vs Roda
Match Information
Match Preview
<html> <head><title>Willem II vs Roda JC – Match Preview and Betting Analysis</title></head> <body> <h2>Form Collide in Tilburg: Second-Half Surge Expected</h2> <p>Willem II and Roda JC meet in Tilburg on October 3 in a contest that pits the league’s tight home performers against one of the division’s most effective away sides. The table is tight—Roda sit 4th with 15 points from 9, Willem II are 6th with 14 from 8—and the numbers point towards a match that comes alive after the break.</p> <h3>Home Solidity vs Away Dynamism</h3> <p>Willem II’s home profile is clear: low event, high control. They average just 1.67 total goals per home game, conceding 0.67, with a clean sheet in 33% of home outings. Roda, by contrast, are lively travelers—3.00 total goals per away game, with 75% of those away matches landing both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. The clash of styles sets up a fascinating tactical balance: Willem II’s structure and goalkeeping quality (Thomas Didillon’s 7.59 rating and 44 saves) versus Roda’s verticality and penalty-area presence through Anthony van den Hurk (5 goals).</p> <h3>Why the Second Half Matters</h3> <p>Both sides’ minute-by-minute profiles tilt late. Willem II have conceded an extraordinary 82% of their goals after half-time, with the average concession arriving at 63 minutes. Roda score 62% of their goals after the break and often find late moments—Mitchel Paulissen’s 90th-minute winner at TOP Oss is the latest example. Both teams carry meaningful output in the final quarter-hour (76–90’), making late drama highly plausible.</p> <h3>Key Match-Ups</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Verheydt vs Van den Buijs/Tol:</strong> Thomas Verheydt is in form (3 goals, including a brace at Vitesse) and thrives on service from width. Roda’s centre-back pairing has been steady, but aerial and set-piece defense will be tested.</li> <li><strong>Kruiver’s overlap vs Willem II’s right side:</strong> Jay Kruiver has been a two-way force (98 duels, 61% won, 12 successful dribbles), giving Roda thrust from fullback.</li> <li><strong>Goalkeepers:</strong> Didillon has been elite for Willem II; Justin Treichel (7.18) is steady for Roda. One big save either side could swing a low-margin match.</li> </ul> <h3>Situational Factors</h3> <p>First goal is huge: both teams are excellent frontrunners (WII 2.33 ppg when scoring first; Roda 2.60). However, Willem II struggle to claw back games (0.00 ppg when conceding first), and their equalizing rate is low (33%). Roda, particularly away, defend leads well (75% lead-defending rate). Willem II have a small rest advantage (last match Sep 27 vs Roda Sep 29), potentially telling in the final stages.</p> <h3>Betting View: Where the Value Lies</h3> <p>The full-game totals are tricky given the venue split: Willem II home games skew under, Roda away skew over. The more robust edge lies in the second-half markets. With Willem II conceding late and Roda scoring late, “Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half” at 1.95 offers a compelling price. “Over 1.5 Goals in the Second Half” at 1.91 is a complementary angle with similar logic.</p> <p>On results, Roda’s away profile (2.25 PPG; 75% “scored first”) and strong lead protection make “Draw or Roda” at 1.65 reasonable value despite Willem II’s home steadiness. For bigger odds, the Correct Score 1-1 at 6.00 fits the data: frequent HT stalemates for Willem II, a competitive balance across the park, and late goals that can level a match.</p> <h3>What to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Set pieces and crosses aimed at Verheydt—Willem II’s best route to breakthrough.</li> <li>Kruiver and Seedorf’s width for Roda—supply lines to Van den Hurk, who also converts penalties.</li> <li>Final 15 minutes—both teams’ numbers spike late; expect substitutes like Paulissen/Cooper-Love to influence.</li> </ul> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Expect a tight first half, increasing tempo after the break, and real jeopardy in the last quarter-hour. The markets shade Willem II at home, but Roda’s away strength and game-state data keep the draw and away angles live. Most reliable angle: second-half superiority for goals.</p> </body> </html>
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