Roda vs Cambuur
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<html> <head><title>Roda JC vs SC Cambuur: Data-Driven Preview and Best Bets</title></head> <body> <h2>Roda JC vs SC Cambuur (Eerste Divisie) – Data-led Preview</h2> <p>Date: 29 September 2025 – Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Roda JC’s home form (1.25 PPG) has lagged behind their reasonably competitive overall start, while Cambuur have been among the division’s early leaders and particularly efficient away (2.25 PPG). The visitors come in off a strong away run, including a 0-1, 0-1 and 2-4 sequence that has propelled them to third in the table. Roda’s last three at home ended D-D-L, capped by a painful 1-4 reverse to RKC.</p> <h3>What the Numbers Say</h3> <ul> <li>Cambuur away defense: just 0.75 goals conceded per game and 50% clean sheets on the road.</li> <li>Roda at home concede 1.75 and have led only 13% of minutes; Cambuur away lead 59%.</li> <li>Goal timing edge: Cambuur’s average first away goal arrives around 19 minutes; Roda concede first at home around 26 minutes.</li> <li>Lead protection: Cambuur’s lead-defending rate is 100% — they have not been pegged back once when ahead.</li> </ul> <h3>Styles, Key Players and Matchups</h3> <p>Expect Cambuur to impose themselves early through the creativity of Mark Diemers (2G+4A, 15 key passes) and the vertical running of Remco Balk and Oscar Sjöstrand (4 goals). Diemers’ ability to draw fouls (40 already) helps Cambuur control territory and tempo. At the back, Jamal Amofa and fullbacks Mulders/Galvez have supported a high-performing keeper in Thijs Jansen (7.89 average rating). This structure underpins their outstanding away lead and clean-sheet metrics.</p> <p>Roda JC will rely on Anthony van den Hurk for end product (4 goals, three from the spot) and Jay Kruiver’s right-sided thrust (89 duels, 56 won). While Roda’s second-half output is real (80% of home goals after HT), they’ve been slow starters at home and vulnerable before the break (31–45’ GA=3), which is exactly when Cambuur tend to land their punches.</p> <h3>Totals and BTTS Outlook</h3> <p>The totals profile leans lower than the league norm. Cambuur away over 2.5 sits at just 25%, and overall their matches average 2.25 goals on the road. Roda’s home numbers are noisier (3.0 total per game), inflated by the 1-4 loss versus RKC, but the matchup still points toward an “unders” lean, especially in the first hour. BTTS is similarly tilted: Cambuur’s away BTTS hit is only 25% so far, making BTTS No a value consideration at bigger odds.</p> <h3>Sentiment and News</h3> <p>Media chatter has fixated on a supposed Cambuur attacking lull; however, the recent data shows 12 goals in 7 league matches and a 2-4 away win last time. We flag that narrative as inconsistent with on-field outputs. There are no confirmed major injuries on either side, and stable management means both teams should settle into familiar XI cores. The forecast — cool, dry, light breeze — should favor a high-tempo but controlled visiting performance.</p> <h3>Tactical Forecast</h3> <ul> <li>First-half edge Cambuur: early pressure and structured possession to find the opener.</li> <li>Roda response after HT: more direct play and set-piece focus, van den Hurk as the penalty/target threat.</li> <li>If Cambuur score first, their 100% lead-defending rate and compact away shape make them difficult to reel in.</li> </ul> <h3>Best Bets Summary</h3> <p>The data most strongly supports Cambuur in first-half markets and conservative away-sided outcomes: First Half Winner (Away) at 2.90, Cambuur DNB at 1.81, and Team to Score First (Away) at 1.88. For totals, Under 2.75 at 1.93 fits Cambuur’s away game-state profile. For a long-shot prop, 0-1 at 10.00 mirrors two of their four away results.</p> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>Cambuur’s road structure, early scoring tendencies, and superior situational metrics (HT leads, lead-defense, time leading) match up well against Roda’s slow home starts and recent defensive wobbles. The market appears to underrate Cambuur in the first half and slightly overrate goal volume. Align your staking accordingly.</p> </body> </html>
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