Tukums vs FS Jelgava
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<html> <head><title>Tukums vs FS Jelgava — Match Preview, Odds & Betting Insight</title></head> <body> <h2>Tukums vs FS Jelgava: Cold Conditions, Hot Value</h2> <p>Tukuma pilsētas stadions hosts a tense Virsliga meeting as Tukums welcome FS Jelgava on November 9. The Oracle sees a market mismatch: despite Jelgava’s higher league position, their away profile remains one of the division’s weakest, creating value on the hosts in key markets.</p> <h3>Form and Momentum</h3> <p>Tukums arrive on a small but meaningful uptick: a gritty 0-0 away at title-chasing Riga FC followed by a tidy 1-0 at Auda. Over their last eight, Tukums’ points per game rose to 1.25 (+25% vs season), with goals against trimmed by nearly 8%. They remain imperfect at home defensively, with local media grumbling about a long concession streak, but the recent trendline is positive.</p> <p>Jelgava, meanwhile, are steady but stuck: five successive draws and six without a win. Their goals-for have jumped to 1.75 per game across the last eight (from 1.09 season average), boosted by improved midfield play, including the addition of Martin Hašek. Yet the results haven’t followed, and away from Jelgava the end product still lags.</p> <h3>Venue Dynamics and Tactical Matchups</h3> <p>At home, Tukums average 1.41 goals scored, and as importantly, carry threat through the in-form Ingars Pūlis (14 goals) and creator Niks Dusalijevs (7 assists). Tukums can break lines and generate box entries, especially in transition against opponents who struggle to reset.</p> <p>Jelgava’s travel sickness is clear: 0.59 points per game, 0.76 goals scored per away match, and a lead-defending rate of only 20%. Even when they hit the front, they seldom keep it. Their away minute-by-minute splits are stark; they’ve failed to score in the final quarter-hour and stoppage time (0 goals) and have conceded eight in that same window.</p> <h3>Goal Timing and Game State</h3> <p>The closing stages loom large. Tukums have a history of late wobbles overall, but at home they’ve managed a handful of late strikes (five in the 76-90). Contrast that with Jelgava’s away collapses and the “last team to score” market tilts towards the hosts. In broader game-state metrics, Jelgava are unusually poor at rescuing points away when conceding first (0.10 PPG) and rarely equalize on the road (18%).</p> <h3>Weather and Tempo</h3> <p>Expect cold, possibly damp conditions (2–5°C, light showers). This usually nudges tempo downward and benefits the more direct, compact side. Tukums can accept a scrappy rhythm and lean on set pieces and Pulis’ movement, while Jelgava’s away finishing issues are generally magnified in such conditions.</p> <h3>Key Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Ingars Pūlis (Tukums): On-song finisher, 14 league goals, decisive in recent wins.</li> <li>Niks Dusalijevs (Tukums): Primary chance creator; set-piece service can unlock a shaky away back line.</li> <li>Martin Hašek (Jelgava): Ball-progressor and tempo-setter; his influence has improved Jelgava’s chance creation, but he can’t solve the late-game away frailty alone.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds, Value and The Oracle’s Angles</h3> <p>The market leans towards Jelgava in several lines, but their away baseline doesn’t justify favoritism. Tukums Draw No Bet at 2.10 looks the standout: it aligns with Jelgava’s 6% away win rate and their inability to protect leads on the road. For those who prefer lower variance, Home/Draw double chance is a sensible alternative at 1.55.</p> <p>Given Jelgava’s 59% away failed-to-score rate and zero goals in the final 15 minutes away, The Oracle also fancies Tukums to score last at 2.20 and leans BTTS No at 2.10. A cold-weather, low-margin home win is live — 1-0 at 9.00 is a fair longshot considering the travelers’ late-game anemia.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>With Tukums trending up and Jelgava’s road issues entrenched, the hosts are the value side. Expect a tight contest, decided late.</p> <p><strong>The Oracle’s pick: Tukums DNB (2.10). Secondary: Tukums to score last (2.20), BTTS No (2.10), Jelgava under 1.5 goals (1.65). Longshot: Tukums 1-0 (9.00).</strong></p> </body> </html>
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