Roasso Kumamoto vs Ventforet Kofu
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<html> <head> <title>Roasso Kumamoto vs Ventforet Kofu — Data-Led Betting Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Match Context</h2> <p>EGAO Kenko Stadium hosts a late-season J2 League fixture between Roasso Kumamoto and Ventforet Kofu on Saturday, November 29, 2025 (14:00 JST). The table sets the tone: Kofu sit mid-table (13th), Kumamoto are 17th and have been in a prolonged slump. With both sides drifting in recent weeks, the market leans to the home team at sub-2.00 — but the underlying numbers suggest a more nuanced picture.</p> <h3>Form and Momentum</h3> <p>Kumamoto’s trajectory is the sharper concern: winless in eight league matches, including three straight home defeats to nil. Over the last eight, they average 0.38 points per game and only 0.75 goals scored, while conceding 1.75. Kofu aren’t sparkling either (0.63 PPG last eight; 0.75 GF, 1.88 GA), but their season-long away profile remains sturdier than Kumamoto’s home baseline.</p> <h3>Venue and Style Matchup</h3> <p>This is a clash of two low-output attacks. Kumamoto’s home scoring sits at 1.06 per game and they fail to score in 44% of home fixtures. Kofu’s away scoring is similarly muted (1.06), but the Yamanashi side compensate with defensive discipline on the road: a 44% away clean-sheet rate, a notable outlier above the league norm. These profiles shift value away from goal-heavy markets and toward unders and BTTS-No.</p> <h3>Goal Timing: Why the Second Half Matters</h3> <p>Timing points strongly to a 2nd-half tilt. Kofu score 68% of their goals after the interval (away split: 74%); Kumamoto concede 61% of their goals in the second half and are particularly vulnerable in the final quarter-hour. Expect a cagey first period before adjustments and fatigue open channels after the break.</p> <h3>Situational Edges</h3> <p>Game-state data reinforces caution on the home favorite. Kumamoto’s ppg when conceding first is just 0.30, and they score first at home only 33% of the time. If Kofu get their noses in front, they defend away leads at 67%. Conversely, neither side equalizes well (both at 30%), which reduces volatility and supports low-scoring outcomes.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <p>For Kumamoto, Ryo Shiohama’s 7 goals in 15 appearances represent the primary threat, but the supporting cast has been light. Kofu’s individual scoring numbers are modest; they rely more on structure and second-half surges than any single finisher. Set-piece impact looks limited on data provided, though Kumamoto’s corner environment is slightly elevated at home (10.44 average total corners).</p> <h3>Market Psychology and Value</h3> <p>The line at around 1.98 for Kumamoto is difficult to justify given current form and chance creation. The public tendency to default to the home side is at play here. Far better value lies with goal-based contrarian angles (BTTS No, Under 2.5) and Kofu not to lose (Double Chance), aligning with both season-long splits and recent trends.</p> <h3>Best Bets Summary</h3> <ul> <li>BTTS – No: Backed by a 44% Kumamoto home blank rate and Kofu’s 44% away clean-sheet rate, plus sub-40% BTTS away for Kofu.</li> <li>Under 2.5 Goals: Both sides under league scoring norms; recent Kumamoto home matches have been under and to nil.</li> <li>Draw or Kofu: Kumamoto’s extended slump vs Kofu’s solid away baseline offers an edge at current pricing.</li> <li>Highest Scoring Half – 2nd: Kofu’s second-half bias vs Kumamoto’s late concession profile fits the tape.</li> </ul> <h3>Longshot Value</h3> <p>Kofu Clean Sheet at 4.50 is mispriced given the overlapping 44% indicators on both sides (Kofu away CS and Kumamoto home blanks), plus recent home droughts for Kumamoto. Correct score 0-1 at 9.00 aligns with the same thesis.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>All roads lead to a cagey, low-event contest where discipline and second-half timing matter. Fade the short home price. The strongest positions are BTTS No and Under 2.5, with Kofu X2 as the safety net and a nibble on second-half supremacy.</p> </body> </html>
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