Scandicci vs Poggibonsi
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<html> <head><title>Scandicci vs Poggibonsi: Match Preview, Odds and Betting Analysis</title></head> <body> <h2>Scandicci v Poggibonsi: Form, Trends and Value</h2> <p>Scandicci welcome bottom-placed Poggibonsi in a Tuscan derby with real relegation ramifications. The Oracle notes a clear venue split: Scandicci are far sturdier at home (1.50 PPG, 11 goals in 8), while Poggibonsi have taken just one point from eight away matches, conceding 18 goals (2.25 per game) with zero clean sheets all season. On standings, Scandicci sit 13th on 18 points, Poggibonsi 18th on 6.</p> <h3>Recent Form and Momentum</h3> <ul> <li>Scandicci: 10 points in their last 8, GF up 28% vs season average; home win over Cannara (2-0) preceded a narrow 1-0 loss at Gavorrano.</li> <li>Poggibonsi: finally broke their duck with a 3-2 win over Cannara last week, but still 6 losses in their last 8 and five straight away defeats.</li> </ul> <p>Form-table context places Scandicci mid-pack over the last eight, while Poggibonsi remain second-bottom. Even with a morale boost from their first win, their away profile remains the worst in the division.</p> <h3>Tactical Undercurrents</h3> <p>Serie D – Girone E often rewards compact home setups. Scandicci’s home numbers suggest a pragmatic approach—enough ball progression to average 1.38 GF at home while allowing 1.13 GA. Poggibonsi’s away metrics point to structural issues transitioning and defending depth runs; repeated two-goal defeats underline their inability to absorb pressure once the first goal arrives.</p> <h3>Key Statistical Contrasts</h3> <ul> <li>Poggibonsi away: 0.13 PPG, 88% losses, 2.25 GA, 50% failed to score away.</li> <li>Scandicci home: 1.50 PPG, 2.50 total goals per game, 100% over 1.5 totals.</li> <li>Poggibonsi clean sheets: 0 in 16 league games.</li> </ul> <p>These extremes frame the matchup: Scandicci should control territory and chances, with a realistic path to multiple goals.</p> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p>Books make Scandicci 1.57 to win—roughly 64% implied. The Oracle projects the true price closer to 1.50–1.55 given Poggibonsi’s away collapse, so there’s a modest edge on the moneyline.</p> <p>The standout, though, is Scandicci -1 Asian Handicap at 2.00. With Poggibonsi losing 5 of their 8 away games by 2+ goals, and conceding at a rate that invites multi-goal margins, even-money with push protection looks underpriced.</p> <p>Scandicci team total over 1.5 at 1.83 also rates well: the visitors concede 2.25 away and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Even a disciplined Scandicci side should find two goals more often than the 54.6% break-even suggests.</p> <p>For totals, Over 2.25 at 1.80 leverages Poggibonsi’s tendency to inflate match totals (2.75 away). It offers a half-loss mitigation if the game finishes on exactly two goals, improving the risk-reward compared to straight Over 2.5 at 2.05.</p> <h3>Scoreline Picture and Prop</h3> <p>Correct score angles favor a controlled home win. Scandicci have logged two 2-0s at home; Poggibonsi have two 2-0 away losses. At 7.00, 2-0 is a sensible small-stake prop in line with the matchup’s dynamics.</p> <h3>Intangibles: Conditions and Motivation</h3> <p>Cool Tuscan winter conditions should not drastically favor either side, though a damp surface can penalize defensive errors—another subtle nudge toward Scandicci given the visitors’ record. Motivation tilts both ways—Scandicci seeking breathing room from the drop zone, Poggibonsi desperate for points—but the talent and structure gap at this venue remains the decisive factor.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Scandicci’s home edge meets the league’s weakest away side. The Oracle’s card: Scandicci -1 AH at 2.00, Scandicci to win at 1.57, Scandicci Over 1.5 team goals at 1.83, and Over 2.25 at 1.80. For a speculative kicker, 2-0 home at 7.00 fits the profiles. Manage stakes accordingly—primary stake on the handicap, secondary on team total and moneyline, smaller on totals and correct score.</p> </body> </html>
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