Treviso vs Adriese
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<html> <head> <title>Treviso vs Adriese: Odds, Form and Value Picks</title> </head> <body> <h2>Treviso vs Adriese: Leaders host strugglers in a venue-edge mismatch</h2> <p>Table-topping Treviso welcome relegation-threatened Adriese in Serie D Group C, and the numbers suggest a classic case of a high-floor home favorite against a travel-sick underdog. With 49 points from 19 matches and five straight league wins, Treviso have separated themselves from the pack, while Adriese’s recent slide (four points from their last eight) has left them in peril at 16th.</p> <h3>Form and Momentum</h3> <p>Treviso’s form line is remarkably steady. They’ve won seven of their last eight league outings and arrive off a 3-1 away win at Vigasio after back-to-back home clean sheets (4-0 Portogruaro, 1-0 Mestre). The defensive metrics are elite: just nine goals conceded in 19 and only two allowed at home across nine fixtures. Adriese, by contrast, have suffered two heavy defeats on the spin—1-5 to Legnago Salus and 0-4 at Luparense—and their last eight show an alarming 0.63 goals scored per game against 2.25 conceded.</p> <h3>Venue Dynamics: Monigo as a Fortress</h3> <p>Treviso at home are 8-0-1, conceding at an extraordinary rate of 0.22 goals per game. Clean sheets in 78% of home matches underpin a style that suffocates visitors, often yielding low-event wins—1-0 is their most common home scoreline. Adriese away average 0.78 goals for, fail to score 56% of the time, and concede 1.56 per game. It’s a clash of extremes that favors a Treviso win without conceding.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Expect Treviso to operate with territorial dominance and patience, compressing space between lines and controlling rest-defense to limit counters. Their recent scorelines hint at a method: grab control, manage transitions, set-piece threat, and squeeze the game once ahead. Adriese will likely sit in a mid-to-low block looking for direct releases, but their low away goal-return and recent heavy defeats suggest they struggle to either hold the block intact for 90 minutes or carry a coherent threat in transition.</p> <h3>Head-to-Head Context</h3> <p>Adriese enjoyed the upper hand in previous season meetings, including a playoff win in May 2025. However, this campaign has diverged sharply: Treviso have elevated to a consistent, top-tier level in Group C while Adriese’s outputs have regressed. The market appears to still respect the historical H2H, but current-season reality points firmly the other way.</p> <h3>Key Stats Driving the Bet</h3> <ul> <li>Treviso home record: 8-0-1; 78% clean sheets; only 2 goals conceded at home.</li> <li>Adriese away: 0.78 GF, 1.56 GA; failed to score in 56% of away matches.</li> <li>Last eight form: Treviso 21 points (1st), Adriese 4 points (16th).</li> <li>Common Treviso home scorelines: multiple 1-0 and 2-0 wins, with occasional 4-0 blowouts.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value Assessment</h3> <p>The pricing is generous to backers of the leaders. Treviso at 1.96 implies just a 51% chance, well below a fair estimate given venue and form. The best structural edges are on defensive props: Both Teams to Score – No at 2.13 and Adriese Under 0.5 at 2.70, each underpinned by Treviso’s clean-sheet rate and Adriese’s away FTS profile. For those seeking a larger payout, Treviso -1.5 at 3.40 is a speculative, positive-EV angle, especially given Adriese’s recent collapses. The exact score 1-0 at 5.20 suits Treviso’s habitual home pattern and can be paired with 2-0 at 6.20 for coverage.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Treviso should impose themselves, limit chances, and find a breakthrough via structured play or set pieces. With their defensive reliability at home, a win to nil is the likeliest script.</p> <p><strong>The Oracle’s pick:</strong> Treviso to win, with Adriese likely shut out. Correct score lean: 1-0 or 2-0.</p> </body> </html>
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