SS Monopoli vs Team Altamura
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<html> <head><title>Monopoli vs Altamura: Tactical and Betting Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Monopoli vs Team Altamura: Form, Tactics and Value Bets</h2> <p>Date: 24 September 2025, 18:45 UTC | Venue: Stadio Vito Simone Veneziani</p> <h3>Context and Stakes</h3> <p>It’s an early-season Apulian clash with Monopoli trending upward after a sharp start, reportedly occupying a top-four slot per the latest sentiment roundups, while Altamura have stumbled near the drop zone. With calm weather expected and both squads close to full strength, the data points strongly toward a Monopoli-controlled contest.</p> <h3>Form Snapshot</h3> <ul> <li>Monopoli: 10 points from 5 (2.00 PPG), two straight wins to nil (2-0 vs Cerignola, 1-0 at Latina). Home PPG sits at 2.00.</li> <li>Altamura: 5 points from 5 (1.00 PPG). Away PPG 0.50, away scoring just 0.5 goals per game. Recent 0-0 (Atalanta B) and 1-1 (Trapani) suggest modest improvement in resilience but little away punch.</li> </ul> <h3>Venue Dynamics</h3> <p>Monopoli’s home profile is robust: 2.0 goals scored per game, 1.0 conceded, and a 50% home clean-sheet rate. Altamura’s away splits are notably weaker (0.5 scored, 1.5 conceded), with half their away outings finishing without a goal scored and no instances of scoring first away. Time spent leading is telling: Monopoli lead 25% overall (51% at home), Altamura just 5% overall, underscoring the expected game state control by the hosts.</p> <h3>Goal Timing and Tactical Flow</h3> <p>Goal timing heavily favors an early Monopoli breakthrough. The hosts’ average minute of first goal at home is 16, while Altamura concede their first goal away around 21. Altamura have yet to score in the second half away from home, making late comebacks improbable. This dovetails with Monopoli’s sturdy lead-defending rate (75% overall), pointing toward a match where scoring first should be decisive.</p> <h3>Key Individuals</h3> <p>Monopoli’s attack has been shared by Maguette Fall and Mattia Tirelli (two goals each), combining for 57% of the team’s goals. Tirelli’s late winner at Latina and Fall’s activity against Cerignola add a form layer that supports a host goal, likely in the first period, given the timing splits and Altamura’s early concessions.</p> <h3>Comparative Strength vs League Baseline</h3> <ul> <li>Monopoli outperform the league average in PPG (2.00 vs 1.35), lead-defending (75% vs 58%), and equalizing (67% vs 42%).</li> <li>Altamura trail league norms in time trailing (37% vs 23%) and have a weak return when conceding first (0.33 PPG overall; 0.00 away).</li> </ul> <p>The league’s total goals profile supports a controlled scoreline, with over 3.5 goals occurring around 30% of the time. That makes “home win with under lines” an attractive coupling given Monopoli’s defensive trend.</p> <h3>Model-Led Betting Angles</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Monopoli -0.25 Asian (1.55)</strong>: Balances safety and price. Hosts’ home PPG edge is clear and Altamura’s away malaise (0.50 PPG; 50% failed to score) is persistent.</li> <li><strong>Monopoli & Under 3.5 (2.32)</strong>: Aligns with Serie C totals and Monopoli’s back-to-back clean sheets. Typical winning scripts: 1-0 or 2-0.</li> <li><strong>Monopoli to score 1st Half – Yes (1.85)</strong>: Backed by early scoring trends (home first goal at 16’) vs Altamura early concessions (21’ away).</li> <li><strong>Altamura to score – No (2.21)</strong>: A price-led play on away bluntness and Monopoli’s 50% home CS rate.</li> </ul> <h3>Red Flags and Sample Size Caveat</h3> <p>With just five games played, extreme splits may regress. Monopoli did suffer a 0-4 at Catania, illustrating occasional volatility. Still, venue-specific and situational indicators consistently favor the hosts, and Altamura’s away numbers are worryingly weak.</p> <h3>Projected Pattern and Score</h3> <p>Expect Monopoli to assert early, manage territory, and limit Altamura’s looks, especially after halftime. A compact home performance, 1-0 or 2-0, best reflects the underlying metrics.</p> <h3>Final Verdict</h3> <p>Monopoli to edge a low-to-medium total affair. Best angles: Monopoli -0.25, Monopoli & Under 3.5, and a first-half home goal. For a speculative play, 1-0 correct score at 5.20 carries fair value.</p> </body> </html>
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