Ternana vs Livorno
Match Information
Match Preview
<html> <head><title>Ternana vs Livorno: Data-Driven Preview, Odds and Bets</title></head> <body> <h2>Ternana vs Livorno: Form, Numbers, and Edges</h2> <p>Stadio Libero Liberati hosts a classic Serie C Group B contrast: a strong-on-their-own-patch Ternana welcoming a travel-sick Livorno. The Oracle notes inconclusive public kickoff times across outlets, but the market picture is clear—home favoritism backed by sharp underlying splits.</p> <h3>Home Fortress vs Away Fragility</h3> <p>Ternana’s home body of work is robust: 1.89 points per game, a 56% win rate, and just 0.89 conceded on average. They control tempo, limit chaos (only 33% over 2.5 at home), and protect leads more efficiently than the league norm (71% lead-defending rate at home).</p> <p>Livorno’s away record is starkly negative: 0.50 points per game, 75% defeats, scoring just 0.38 goals per game. They’ve failed to score in 62% of road trips and equalize away only 14% of the time when behind. Such game-state weakness matters in Serie C, where teams who grab the first goal often lock matches down.</p> <h3>Form Trajectory and What’s Sustainable</h3> <p>Ternana’s last eight show incremental improvement—more points, more goals, slightly tighter defense. It’s not a hot streak, it’s steady hardening. Livorno’s recent unbeaten run is real but home-tilted; away metrics have not budged sufficiently, and their chance creation on the road remains thin.</p> <h3>Timing Matters: Expect Late Tilt to Ternana</h3> <p>Ternana score 60% of their goals after halftime, with notable surges between minutes 61-75 and 76-90. Livorno’s defensive profile worsens late; they’ve conceded heavily in the 61-75 window and remain vulnerable in the final quarter. This dovetails with Livorno’s tendency to go in level at the break away from home (50% HT draws) before slipping after the interval.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup Snapshot</h3> <p>At home, Ternana’s compact mid-block and set-piece reliability pair well against a Livorno side that struggles to build pressure away. Even when Livorno take the lead, their lead-defending rate is middling; when they fall behind, their ppg drops to zero. With Ternana’s equalizing rate above league norms and superior lead protection at home, the game-state dynamics favor the Rossoverdi controlling the narrative.</p> <h3>Market Angles and Prices</h3> <ul> <li>Ternana to Win at 1.67: The implied ~60% underestimates the combined 56% home win rate vs 75% Livorno away losses. Fair nearer 1.52–1.60.</li> <li>Home Clean Sheet Yes at 2.00: Livorno’s 62% away FTS is critical; Ternana’s defensive standard at home supports a 50%+ true probability.</li> <li>BTTS No at 1.67: Livorno’s away BTTS Yes only 25%. Risk is Ternana conceding a soft one, but matchup still leans no.</li> <li>Second Half Winner Ternana at 2.10: Aligns with both teams’ timing profiles—hosts escalate after the break; visitors fade.</li> <li>Asian -0.75 at 1.95 (Value Angle): Livorno’s 2+ goal away defeats in 50% of trips keeps the door open for a step up from the moneyline.</li> </ul> <h3>Scoreline and Prop Lean</h3> <p>A controlled home win to nil sits at the heart of the projection. Correct Score 1-0 at 6.00 fits the pattern—Ternana keep margins contained, and Livorno lack away punch. If Ternana score before HT, the match could finish 2-0; if it’s tight at the break, expect a late home winner.</p> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>The edges converge on Ternana: home control, better game-state management, and a starkly weaker traveling side. In a league where home advantage bites and leads are precious, the numbers endorse a home win, strong clean-sheet probability, and second-half superiority.</p> <h4>The Oracle’s Best Bets</h4> <ul> <li>Ternana to Win – 1.67</li> <li>Home Clean Sheet Yes – 2.00</li> <li>BTTS No – 1.67</li> <li>Second Half Winner Ternana – 2.10</li> <li>Value: Ternana -0.75 (AH) – 1.95; Prop: Correct Score 1-0 – 6.00</li> </ul> </body> </html>
Betting Odds
Odds are currently unavailable.
Odds are provided for informational purposes. Please gamble responsibly.
AI Analysis & Predictions
Get comprehensive AI-powered analysis for this match with our advanced prediction models. Our AI considers team form, head-to-head records, player statistics, and real-time data to provide accurate insights.
- Real-time match predictions
- In-depth statistical analysis
- Live odds monitoring
- Expert betting insights