Pianese vs Gubbio
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<html> <head> <title>Pianese vs Gubbio – Serie C Group B Analysis, Odds and Betting Preview</title> <meta name="description" content="The Oracle’s comprehensive breakdown of Pianese vs Gubbio with tactical insights, key stats, and best value bets." /> </head> <body> <h2>Pianese vs Gubbio: Fast starts vs draw machine</h2> <p>Pianese welcome Gubbio in Serie C Group B with both clubs tied on 18 points and trending in different ways. Pianese’s home matches have been open and front-loaded with early goals, while Gubbio arrive in peak “resilience mode,” unbeaten in six and riding five consecutive draws. The market shades Gubbio as slight favourites away from home, but the matchup-specific data tells a subtler story.</p> <h3>Form and momentum</h3> <p>Pianese’s last eight league outings return 9 points, a shade below their season baseline. They’re coming off a gritty 1-1 at Campobasso (a 90’ Bifulco penalty salvaged a point) after a wild 3-2 home win versus Forlì. That micro-run underscores a profile: capable of bursts of goals, yet porous late on.</p> <p>Gubbio are drawing everything in sight. Five straight stalemates include 0-0 vs Livorno, 1-1 vs Juventus U23 (conceded at 90’), and 1-1 away at Ravenna. Earlier, they smashed Athletic Carpi 3-0 away and drew 1-1 away at Ascoli. The theme: compact, stubborn, and very hard to beat.</p> <h3>Tactical matchup: the halves will look different</h3> <p>Pianese’s home games average 3.14 total goals and they score 80% of those before halftime. Their average first goal at home comes around the 13th minute, with a notable cluster in the opening 15. Conversely, Gubbio concede early on their travels (average first conceded 14’) and allow the opponent to score first 71% of the time. Expect the hosts to push aggressively from the whistle, with Bellini’s direct running and timing a consistent early threat. Set-pieces and penalties also matter for Pianese (Bertini/Bifulco), which amplifies the first-half goal probability.</p> <p>After the break the matchup flips. Pianese’s 2nd-half numbers at home are poor (GF 2, GA 7), including repeated concessions in the final quarter-hour. Gubbio’s second halves away are tidy (GF 3, GA 1), reflective of good game-state management and strong equalizing capability (62% overall). If Gubbio are behind at the interval, their pattern suggests they’ll grow into the match and chase a leveler effectively.</p> <h3>Key players and patterns</h3> <ul> <li>Pianese: Leonardo Bellini has been the sharpest in open play and shows up early; Marco Bertini offers penalty reliability; Alfredo Bifulco has delivered late from the spot.</li> <li>Gubbio: Federico Carraro’s creativity, Andrea La Mantia’s penalty presence, and Christian Tommasini’s clutch moments give them multiple avenues to equalize.</li> </ul> <p>There are no decisive injury developments in the provided updates; both managers should be close to full selection, which supports these entrenched team tendencies.</p> <h3>Market read and value</h3> <p>Despite Gubbio’s slight favoritism in 1X2, the draw is the price that looks wrong. Gubbio draw 60% of matches (five in a row), while Pianese’s game-state profile (long time spent level, home defensive volatility) leans into a share of the spoils. The 2.90 on the draw carries clear value against a fair price closer to 2.20–2.40.</p> <p>The best edge is earlier: Home team 1st-half goals Over 0.5 at 2.36. Pianese have scored in the first half in roughly 72% of home fixtures; Gubbio concede their first away goal very early. The market is still anchored to Gubbio’s overall low-scoring away matches, underestimating the venue-and-timing split.</p> <h3>Scorelines and totals</h3> <p>Gubbio’s away Over 2.5 rate is just 14%, and their most common away result is 1-1 (43%). Pianese’s venue inflates totals, but given Gubbio’s draw bias and low away variance, outcomes cluster around 1-1 or a narrow 1-0/0-1. That underpins the value on Draw & Under 2.5 and the 1-1 correct score at a chunky 6.00.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s verdict</h3> <p>Expect Pianese to start on the front foot and often find that early goal. From there, Gubbio’s equalizing nous and second-half control come to the fore. The data most strongly backs a final deadlock, with the 1-1 particularly live. The split strategy—early Pianese goal and full-time draw—aligns with both teams’ clearest statistical identities.</p> </body> </html>
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