Ravenna vs Gubbio

<div> <h2>Ravenna vs Gubbio: Promotion push meets away resilience</h2> <p>Second-placed Ravenna welcome 11th-placed Gubbio in a nuanced Serie C – Girone B matchup that pits one of the division’s best home units against a well-drilled away defense. Kick-off is set for Saturday at 18:30 local time in Ravenna, with crisp late-autumn weather expected to allow both sides to execute their game plans cleanly.</p> <h3>Form and context</h3> <p>Ravenna enter unbeaten in four, with successive clean-sheet home wins over Ascoli (1-0) and Torres (3-0) framing a 1-1 draw at Livorno. The trajectory is clear: tighter defensive control and a knack for decisive late moments. Their broader body of work is elite: 2.57 points per game at home with six wins from seven.</p> <p>Gubbio’s picture is more complex. Recent results show resilience—draws at Ascoli and at home to Ternana, plus a standout 3-0 win at Athletic Carpi—but a last-8 points haul of just seven speaks to inconsistency. Away from home, however, their defensive data is excellent (0.71 goals against per game; 43% clean sheets), and they rarely get involved in high-scoring affairs.</p> <h3>Tactical battle lines</h3> <p>Expect Ravenna to build methodically, then lift the tempo after the interval. They score 68% of their goals in the second half and are especially threatening from 61-90’. Penalty-box presence from Stefano Okaka, the composure of Cristian Spini (including from the spot), and the late-arriving threat of Pierluca Luciani give them multiple routes to goal. Their set-piece and penalty conversion adds a layer of inevitability once pressure mounts.</p> <p>Gubbio are set up to frustrate. Their away numbers indicate a compact mid-block with a strong structure after halftime—just one second-half goal conceded on the road all season. When they break, Carraro and La Mantia are the focal points, but away production remains modest (1.00 goals scored per game). The tactical onus will be on stifling Ravenna’s second-half surge and exploiting transitional moments early.</p> <h3>Key metrics driving the market</h3> <ul> <li>Ravenna at home: 6W from 7, 2.57 PPG, 100% lead-defending rate.</li> <li>Gubbio away: 0.71 GA per game, 43% clean sheets; BTTS away only 29%.</li> <li>Timing: Ravenna score first at home 71%; Gubbio concede first away 57% and very early on average.</li> <li>Totals: Gubbio away totals sit at just 1.71 per game; Ravenna’s recent matches trend under despite earlier high-scoring home outings.</li> </ul> <h3>What decides it</h3> <p>If Ravenna strike first—historically likely at this venue—the numbers say they very rarely let opponents back in. Gubbio’s best road performances have come when they’ve controlled rhythm and scored first, but data points to them being the more probable chasers here. The second half should tilt to Ravenna’s pressure game, especially with their late-goal profile.</p> <h3>Odds, value, and best plays</h3> <p>With the home win priced at 1.95 and the Asian line at Ravenna -0.25 trading around 1.75, the smarter risk-managed angle is the handicap: it captures Ravenna’s high home win probability while giving draw protection. Team to score first: Ravenna at 1.73 is also well-positioned, aligning with the venue splits and early-concession profile for Gubbio away.</p> <p>Given Gubbio’s low-event away identity, BTTS No at 1.67 and Under 2.5 at 1.57 fit the tactical complexion. For a longshot, Draw at HT / Ravenna FT at 5.00 mirrors Ravenna’s late surge pattern and Gubbio’s capacity to keep first halves tight.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Ravenna 1-0 Gubbio. A controlled home display, defined by a late breakthrough and a clean sheet, matches both teams’ seasonal tendencies.</p> </div>