Venezia vs Virtus Entella

<div> <h2>Venezia vs Virtus Entella: Form, numbers and where the value lies</h2> <p>Stadio Pierluigi Penzo hosts a classic Serie B contrast on December 27: a dominant home side in Venezia against one of the league’s softest travelers, Virtus Entella. The weather forecast calls for light rain and 8°C, conditions that typically reward the more structured side. On the balance of evidence, that’s Venezia.</p> <h3>Context and standings</h3> <p>Venezia arrive in the promotion mix after a strong first half of the campaign (32 points through 17, 3rd per the table provided), while Entella sit in the bottom half (15th with 16 points). Momentum leans heavily orange and green: Venezia have won six of their last eight and are unbeaten in six, including comprehensive home wins over Mantova (3-0), Sudtirol (3-0), and a tidy 2-0 over Monza.</p> <h3>Home fortress vs away frailty</h3> <p>At Penzo, Venezia’s profile is elite: 2.63 points per game, 88% win rate, 2.38 goals scored and just 0.50 conceded per game. They score first 88% of the time and defend a lead at an imposing 88% rate. Their clean sheet rate at home stands at 62% and they’ve scored at least twice in six straight home matches.</p> <p>Entella away are the mirror opposite: 0.25 PPG (0W-2D-6L), 0.63 goals for and 2.13 against. They fail to score in half of their away matches and lose to nil 38% of the time. The second half is their undoing: 13 goals conceded away after halftime, part of a broader 80% share of all concessions coming in the second half this season.</p> <h3>Tactics and timing: why the second half matters</h3> <p>Venezia press with purpose and strike in waves around the interval – eight goals in the 46-60’ window overall, and at home another surge just after the break. Entella’s deep block struggles to hold structure after halftime, and their lead-defending rate away is effectively zero. This lends itself to angles like “Venezia to win the second half” and handicaps that cash late.</p> <h3>Key players and match-ups</h3> <p>Andrea Adorante (7 league goals) and John Yeboah (5G, 5A) headline Venezia’s attack, with Kike Pérez providing four assists and control between the lines. Yeboah’s dribbling volume and ability to draw fouls are particularly dangerous against an Entella backline that concedes territory and set pieces away from home.</p> <p>Entella’s top scorer is centre-back Andrea Tiritiello (6 goals), a set-piece threat but a telling indicator of their reliance on dead-balls rather than open-play craft. Alessandro Debenedetti and Andrea Franzoni have chipped in, but the overall away output remains meagre.</p> <h3>Injuries and conditions</h3> <p>Venezia are without Bartol Franjic and Cheick Condé, trimming defensive depth but not dramatically altering a unit that has conceded just 0.50 per home game. Entella are reported to have a full squad. Light rain should slow transitions and favour Venezia’s structured game and technical superiority in the middle third.</p> <h3>Where the betting value sits</h3> <ul> <li>Venezia to win to nil (2.45): Backed by a 62% home clean sheet rate versus Entella’s 50% away fail-to-score. Implied odds leave a cushion.</li> <li>Venezia -1 Asian Handicap (1.91): Common home margins (3-0, 2-0) and Entella’s 2.13 GA away make this fair-to-plus EV.</li> <li>Second Half Winner – Venezia (1.85): Entella concede 80% of their goals after halftime; Venezia are strongest around the hour.</li> <li>Venezia Over 1.5 Team Goals (1.67): Six straight home games with 2+ scored; profile supports repeat.</li> <li>Sprinkle: Correct scores 2-0 (6.00) and 3-0 (9.50).</li> <li>Prop: John Yeboah anytime (3.10) – shot volume and form meet a porous away defence; price looks generous.</li> </ul> <h3>The Oracle’s verdict</h3> <p>This matchup aligns cleanly across venue splits, form, and goal timing. Venezia should assert early control and squeeze an Entella side that fades after the break. The safest path is the home side on a line; the best value is win to nil at a plus price. Expect a professional, perhaps methodical, Venezia win: 2-0 feels like the median, with 3-0 alive if chances stack up.</p> </div>