Avellino vs Venezia
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<html> <head><title>Avellino vs Venezia: Form, Numbers, Odds</title></head> <body> <h2>Match Snapshot</h2> <p>Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi hosts a classic Serie B clash of trajectories: a promoted Avellino working to bed in at this level against a well-drilled Venezia side moving like promotion contenders. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC, with the visitors priced as clear favorites across most markets.</p> <h3>Form and Momentum</h3> <p>Venezia arrive in excellent fettle: three wins on the spin, two consecutive clean sheets, and five victories in their last eight league matches. They’ve hit roughly 1.8 goals per game and boast the league’s standout defensive metrics with seven clean sheets already. Their last two rounds underline balance and depth: 2–0 away at Padova and 3–0 at home to Mantova.</p> <p>Avellino’s curve has dipped. Over the last eight rounds they’ve dropped to 1.00 points per game, with goals for down 38% versus season average and goals against nudging up. The 0–1 away win at Sudtirol steadied nerves, but recent home losses to Empoli (0–3) and Spezia (0–4) exposed structural weaknesses and short bench depth.</p> <h3>Tactical Picture</h3> <p>Expect Avellino in a 3-5-2/3-4-2-1, compact and pragmatic, leaning on set pieces and transition. Tommaso Biasci remains the reference point up front, with Roberto Insigne tasked to supply. The issue is availability: injuries to Favilli, Russo, D’Andrea and others compress rotation and limit the threat off the bench.</p> <p>Venezia’s 3-1-4-2 morphs smoothly in possession. Gianluca Busio sets tempo from deep, Kike Pérez and Issa Doumbia carry progression and chance creation, while John Yeboah’s direct dribbling dovetails with Andrea Adorante’s penalty-box presence. The visitors tend to seize the initiative early; they’ve scored first in 71% of matches and average their first goal around the 22nd minute.</p> <h3>Venue Trends and Goal Timings</h3> <p>Avellino’s home profile is high-variance: 3.17 total goals per game with a 67% over 2.5 strike rate, but also a 50% failed-to-score rate. They concede late at home (five against in 76’–90’), but don’t score late much themselves (only one goal in that window). Venezia’s away data points to control and maturity: very little time spent trailing, numerous away half-time draws, and late concessions that haven’t been punished often due to stronger game management.</p> <h3>Key Matchups</h3> <ul> <li>Adorante vs Avellino back three: Six goals already, clever movement, and service from Kike Pérez and Busio make him a constant threat inside the area.</li> <li>Yeboah vs wing-back channel: His 1v1s can force Avellino’s wide center-back to step out, opening the half-space for late runs.</li> <li>Set pieces: Avellino must maximize dead balls to offset open-play deficiencies; Venezia’s height and structure are generally reliable defending these phases.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p>Bookmakers make Venezia odds-on (around 1.73), but their away draw rate (57%) tempers the straight moneyline value. The better value lies in the patterns: “Team to score first – Venezia” (1.60) aligns with scoring-first dominance and Avellino’s early concessions. Over 2.5 (1.93) benefits from Avellino’s high-total home profile and Venezia’s multi-scorer threat. A bolder angle is “Venezia clean sheet” (~2.38), supported by Avellino’s 50% home blanks and Venezia’s 50% overall clean-sheet rate.</p> <h3>Injuries and Squad News</h3> <p>Avellino’s list of doubts and absences (Favilli, Russo, D’Andrea, Armellino, Panico) strips attacking variety and late-game options. Venezia miss defensive/depth pieces (Franjic, Condé, Sverko), but their core XI is intact and in rhythm.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Venezia’s organization, early pressure, and superior attacking profiles should tilt the contest. Avellino can keep this close if they compress the middle and nick set pieces, but the visitors’ probability of scoring first and controlling game state is higher.</p> <p><strong>Lean:</strong> Venezia to score first; over 2.5 looks live; Adorante a strong anytime candidate.</p> </body> </html>
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