Modena vs Empoli
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<html> <head> <title>Modena vs Empoli: Serie B Betting Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Modena vs Empoli – Form, Trends and Value</h2> <p>League leaders Modena host an inconsistent Empoli at the Stadio Alberto Braglia with top-versus-midtable narratives shaping market sentiment. The Oracle notes that the pricing leans too cautiously on totals given Modena’s home efficiency and Empoli’s away leakiness.</p> <h3>Why Modena Are Favored</h3> <p>Modena are unbeaten (5-3-0) and own one of Serie B’s best defensive records (0.5 GA per game). At home they’ve won 3 of 4, scoring 2.0 goals per game and keeping 50% clean sheets. This is not a brittle front-running profile either: Modena’s lead-defending rate sits at 100%, and their time spent trailing at home is just 6%.</p> <p>Offensively, the timing is decisive. Modena are late-game merchants: 88% of their home goals arrive in the second half, with heavy output in the 61–90 minute window. Empoli’s travel fatigue shows most clearly there; the visitors concede heavily after the break, with away goals against piling up in the final quarter-hour.</p> <h3>Empoli’s Away Problem</h3> <p>Empoli’s surface numbers (2-4-2) mask a stark away split: 1.0 PPG on the road, 1.0 GF and 2.67 GA, and no clean sheets in eight league matches overall. They are consistently forced to chase—opponents score first in 75% of Empoli fixtures—and their lead retention is weak (40%). While Empoli can score through Stiven Shpendi and Bohdan Popov, they struggle to lock down games, and their second-half defensive numbers away are alarming.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchups</h3> <p>Modena’s structure funnels attacks wide then crashes the box with Gliozzi’s presence. The striker has five goals already (four at home) and is the primary penalty-taker—relevant against a foul-prone Empoli backline. With supply from Zampano, Santoro, and Di Mariano, Modena’s late surges and set-piece threat are amplified.</p> <p>Empoli’s best route is transition through Elia and service into Shpendi/Popov, but their midfield often cedes territory after halftime. Modena’s compact block and strong game-state management (3.0 PPG when scoring first) are designed to suffocate teams like Empoli who live on moments rather than sustained control.</p> <h3>Markets and Value</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Modena Team Total Over 1.5 (2.00)</strong> – The Oracle’s top angle. Modena hit 2+ in 3/4 home games; Empoli concede 2.67 away with zero clean sheets. Fair price closer to 1.75–1.80.</li> <li><strong>Highest Scoring Half – 2nd (2.15)</strong> – Modena’s 2nd-half GF bias meets Empoli’s 2nd-half GA spike away. Numbers argue for a sub-2.00 price; we’re getting paid.</li> <li><strong>Modena to win 2nd Half (2.15)</strong> – Reinforces the timing edge. Even if cagey early, Modena’s depth and substitutions swing late phases.</li> <li><strong>HT Draw (2.05)</strong> – Modena’s slower first halves (average first goal at 49’ at home) and Empoli’s 67% away HT draws line up for value above even money.</li> <li><strong>Gliozzi Anytime (2.60)</strong> – Volume, home scoring split and penalties boost his goal equity beyond this price.</li> </ul> <h3>Team News and Sentiment</h3> <p>Reports suggest both sides are largely healthy. Modena’s continuity and positive dressing-room mood are widely noted locally. Empoli’s camp is tense; pressure on the manager persists and the attack has been tweaked week-to-week seeking balance. With mild, clear weather expected, tempo should be high enough to accentuate Modena’s late-game strengths.</p> <h3>Score Lean and Risk Notes</h3> <p>The Oracle’s score leans 2-0 or 2-1 to Modena. A conservative stance avoids heavy totals given Modena’s defensive baseline, but Empoli’s away profile does nudge probability upward for 2+ Modena goals and an active second half. If hedging, consider Over 2.25 (1.95) on the goal line for push protection.</p> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>Modena’s blend of elite game-state control and late scoring should overcome Empoli’s away fragility. The best value sits on Modena team goals and second-half markets, with Gliozzi the most logical player prop to ride.</p> </body> </html>
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