Cremonese vs AS Roma
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<html> <head> <title>Cremonese vs AS Roma Prediction, Odds & Tactical Preview</title> <meta name="description" content="AS Roma travel to Cremonese in Serie A. Expert analysis on odds, tactics, team news, and best bets." /> </head> <body> <h2>Cremonese vs AS Roma – Context and Stakes</h2> <p>Roma arrive in Cremona with top-two form after 11 rounds, while Cremonese hover mid-table but trending down in the form table. Under Igor Tudor, Roma have tightened their structure away from home, making them one of Serie A’s most efficient travel sides. Cremonese, under Davide Ballardini, have been resilient but blunt, leaning on late moments and set plays.</p> <h3>Team News and Tactical Notes</h3> <p>Cremonese’s key worry is in goal: with Emil Audero reportedly out, a change between the posts may dent their shot-stopping. Up front, Jamie Vardy is expected to start despite ongoing fitness management, with creative supply a recurring issue. Federico Bonazzoli leads their scoring but all his goals have come away; at the Zini, finishing has been patchier.</p> <p>For Roma, Paulo Dybala is doubtful, but the visitors retain ample creativity through Lorenzo Pellegrini and Matías Soulé, with Artem Dovbyk offering penalty-box presence. Mile Svilar and a settled backline (Ndicka headlining) underpin a defense that has allowed just five league goals.</p> <h3>Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Roma away: 2.4 points per game, 80% wins, 0.4 goals conceded per away game, 60% away clean sheets.</li> <li>Cremonese home: 1.20 PPG, concede 1.20 per game, leadDefendingRate 25%.</li> <li>Under trends: Roma away matches see just 1.4 total goals on average; over 2.5 hits only 20% away.</li> <li>Game state: Roma’s leadDefendingRate is 100%; Cremonese’s PPG when conceding first at home is 0.00 with a 0% equalizing rate.</li> </ul> <h3>Matchup Dynamics</h3> <p>Expect Roma to control territory and game state rather than chase volume. Their away score distribution shows a heavy 0-1 lean, reflecting defensive control and selective risk. Roma have led at halftime in 60% of their away games, and Cremonese’s second-half concessions (5 of 6 at home) suggest the visitors’ patience can tell after the break.</p> <p>Ballardini’s back three will attempt to compress central zones, but with Pellegrini roaming between the lines and Soulé able to isolate fullbacks, Roma should generate enough quality moments. Set pieces could be vital: Pellegrini’s delivery and potential penalty duty increase his attacking equity, especially with Dybala doubtful.</p> <h3>Weather and Tempo</h3> <p>Damp, overcast conditions (light rain forecast) typically slow tempo and reduce shot quality—an added tailwind for under bettors, dovetailing with Roma’s low-event away pattern.</p> <h3>Odds, Market Psychology and Value</h3> <p>The market rates Roma at 1.60 to win—justified by their 80% away win rate and defensive metrics. The total is where value crystallizes: Under 2.5 at 1.70 competes against Cremonese’s home BTTS rate, but Roma’s away profile (80% unders, 60% clean sheets) is structurally stronger. The combination “Roma & Under 2.5” at 3.50 prices at an implied 28.6%, while Roma have three 0-1 away wins in five—an evident misalignment.</p> <p>For higher variance angles, Roma clean sheet at 2.00 is a fair-plus quote given their 60% away CS rate and Cremonese’s lack of home-end product. The exact score 0-1 at 5.00 directly mirrors their common away result and aligns with tactical expectations.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Lorenzo Pellegrini (Roma): Primary set-piece and likely penalty taker; key ball progression and chance creation.</li> <li>Matías Soulé (Roma): Team-high league goals, 1v1 threat to unlock a compact block.</li> <li>Jamie Vardy (Cremonese): Movement still sharp, but requires service; Roma’s back three track runs well.</li> <li>Mile Svilar (Roma): Commanding season; presence a big reason for Roma’s clean-sheet clip.</li> </ul> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Roma’s away structure, dominance when ahead, and Cremonese’s inability to overturn deficits point to a controlled away win in a low scorer. Roma to win is the anchor; Under 2.5 and Roma clean sheet are natural extensions. Price hunters should consider Roma & Under 2.5 and 0-1 correct score.</p> </body> </html>
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