Cagliari vs Bologna
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<html> <head><title>Cagliari vs Bologna: Tactical Preview, Odds and Value</title></head> <body> <h2>Cagliari vs Bologna: Can the Rossoblù translate home form to Sardinia?</h2> <p>Unipol Domus hosts a nuanced Serie A matchup as Cagliari welcome Bologna. The storyline is simple: Bologna have looked slick at home, but their away splits have lagged badly; Cagliari remain low-event, well-organized, and awkward to break down in Sardinia. Market prices tilt toward an away result, but the data hints at a tighter, lower-scoring contest than public sentiment suggests.</p> <h3>Form and Venue Dynamics</h3> <p>Cagliari’s six-match run (2W-2D-2L) has produced exactly 2.0 total goals per game and a 0% rate of Over 2.5 at home through three matches. Fabio Pisacane’s side are compact, with goalkeeper Elia Caprile posting 21 saves across six games. At the other end, production is spread—Andrea Belotti has two (both away), while Gennaro Borrelli netted last time out at Udinese and is tipped to start.</p> <p>Bologna enter on a high after a 4-0 dismantling of Pisa, where Riccardo Orsolini starred again. But away from Emilia-Romagna, the numbers cool: 0.33 points per game, 0.67 goals scored, 1.33 conceded, and crucially, they’ve never scored first away this season (opponents scored first 100%). With Europa League commitments in the mix, the travel to Sardinia can sap rhythm and rotations.</p> <h3>Match Flow and Goal Timing</h3> <p>Both sides skew toward second-half events. Cagliari concede 67% of their goals after the break, while Bologna’s goals-for split is 56% post-interval and 80% of their concessions also arrive after halftime away. Expect a cautious opening: Bologna’s away halftime results have been draws in all three matches; Cagliari’s halves are typically balanced before later flurries, especially 76–90’ at home.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchups</h3> <p>Predicted shapes are 4-3-2-1 (Cagliari) versus 4-2-3-1 (Bologna). With Alessandro Deiola and Matteo Prati screening, Cagliari can crowd central lanes against Remo Freuler and Lewis Ferguson while forcing Bologna wide to Emil Holm and Charalambos Lykogiannis. That funnels chance creation to crosses, where Cagliari’s aerial presence (Yerry Mina, Sebastiano Luperto) holds up. Bologna’s best weapon remains Orsolini attacking the right half-space and on penalties; Jens Odgaard’s movement between centre-back and full-back zones will test Cagliari’s back line, but away output has been inconsistent.</p> <h3>Key Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Riccardo Orsolini (Bologna): 4 league goals, 16 shots (10 on target). He carries 44% of Bologna’s scoring load.</li> <li>Elia Caprile (Cagliari): In-form shot-stopper anchoring a defense conceding just 1.0 per game.</li> <li>Gennaro Borrelli (Cagliari): Physical presence up top; scored in the last round, offers a set-piece/box threat.</li> <li>Remo Freuler (Bologna): Stability and press-resistance, but will find a congested midfield.</li> </ul> <h3>Market and Value Read</h3> <p>Totals angle leads. With Cagliari home Over 2.5 at 0% and Bologna away scoring muted, Under 2.5 is attractively priced around 1.62. BTTS No (1.75) aligns with both teams’ venue splits (each at 33% BTTS on the relevant splits). Bologna Under 1.5 Team Goals (1.53) fits with their away average of 0.67 goals and two away blanks. For a side market, Half-Time Draw at 2.10 is supported by Bologna’s 100% HT away draws.</p> <p>If you want a price-led flier, Cagliari/Draw Double Chance at 1.70 factors in the travel tax and Bologna’s 0% “scored first” away record. For a player prop hedge against the totals, Orsolini anytime at 2.88 is defensible given his shot volume and penalty duty—best staked small alongside unders.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Expect a measured game state, territorial swings without sustained shot volume, and late-half increments rather than a shootout. Unders and BTTS No drive the card; first-half draw as a companion leans into the pacing dynamics. Bologna’s overall quality is real, but away evidence this season makes laying an away win at short odds unappealing in Sardinia.</p> </body> </html>
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