Bologna vs Genoa
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<html> <head> <title>Bologna vs Genoa – Serie A Betting Preview</title> <meta name="description" content="In-depth statistical preview and betting angles for Bologna vs Genoa, Serie A, 20 September 2025." /> </head> <body> <h2>Bologna vs Genoa: Tactical Calm, Tight Margins</h2> <p> Stadio Renato Dall’Ara hosts two sides whose early-season numbers scream caution rather than chaos. Bologna have been disciplined under new boss Vincenzo Italiano, while Genoa’s stability is evident in their defensive metrics but offset by a stuttering attack. Expect a game shaped by structure, duels in midfield, and late-edge moments rather than end-to-end drama. </p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p> Three rounds in, both teams are in the lower half. Bologna’s results have all been 1-0 (one win, two narrow defeats) with a 100% 0-0 half-time record. Genoa are winless but competitive: a scoreless draw with Lecce, a narrow 0-1 loss to Juventus, and a last-gasp 1-1 draw at Como. The shared theme is clarity: low totals, few chances, and matches decided by one key moment. </p> <h3>Injuries and Selection</h3> <p> Bologna’s absentee list is notable: Ciro Immobile (hamstring), Emil Holm, Nicolò Casale and Tommaso Pobega are sidelined. That caps the home side’s scoring ceiling but not their tactical coherence. Expect Riccardo Orsolini and Nicolò Cambiaghi to shoulder the creativity, with Remo Freuler anchoring the pressing and distribution in midfield. </p> <p> Genoa miss Albert Grønbæk and Jean Onana. The spine remains intact—goalkeeper Nicola Leali, a robust back line with Johan Vásquez and Leo Østigård, and ball-winners Morten Frendrup and Patrizio Masini (a combined 32 tackles in three matches). In attack, Lorenzo Colombo is working but underproducing; Junior Messias and Valentín Carboni provide dribbling spark, and Caleb Ekuban is the late-game wildcard after his 90th-minute equalizer last weekend. </p> <h3>Key Matchups and Patterns</h3> <p> The midfield grapple is pivotal. Freuler and Fabbian trying to control tempo against Frendrup and Masini’s intensity should tilt the territorial advantage toward Bologna at home. Out wide, Orsolini’s shot volume and 1v1 threat face Aarón Martín and support from Vásquez—an excellent duel that may decide whether Bologna can carve the decisive chance. </p> <p> Timing matters here. Bologna have scored and conceded exclusively after the break; Genoa’s only goal also arrived in the 76–90 window. That late-game skew aligns with Italiano’s control-first approach and Genoa’s preference to hang around and pounce. Expect a cautious first half, then incremental risk as subs arrive—Messias/Carboni for Genoa, fresh legs for Bologna’s front line. </p> <h3>Numbers That Move Markets</h3> <ul> <li>Over 2.5 has not landed in any of the six combined team-matches this season.</li> <li>Bologna’s home line: 1-0. Genoa’s away line: 1-1—both low-event outcomes.</li> <li>Bologna’s leadDefendingRate is 100%; once ahead, they’ve closed the door.</li> <li>Bologna have reached half-time at 0-0 in every match; Genoa’s halves are also generally quiet.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p> The market expects a narrow home win and a low total. Under 2.5 at 1.55 is short but justified by a confluence of slow starts and compact shapes. Bologna at 1.84 is a fair price given their home control and Genoa’s toothlessness, though Bologna’s injuries temper confidence. First-Half Under 0.5 at 2.40 is a standout price relative to repeated 0-0 intervals. “Highest Scoring Half: 2nd” at 2.15 matches the timing profile on both sides. For longer odds, Orsolini anytime at 3.10 carries reasonable value as Bologna’s primary shooter and set-piece outlet. </p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p> Bologna’s structure and home edge should tell—especially if they can isolate Orsolini on the right and earn set-pieces. Genoa’s best path is to drag the contest deep and leverage Messias or Ekuban against a tiring back line. With the weight of evidence leaning towards under, the likeliest scripts are 1-0 or 1-1, driven by a quiet first half and a marginally livelier second. </p> <h3>Best Bets</h3> <p> Under 2.5 goals (1.55), Bologna to win (1.84), First Half Under 0.5 (2.40), Highest Scoring Half – 2nd (2.15). Value prop: Orsolini anytime (3.10). </p> </body> </html>
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