Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.
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<html> <body> <h2>Bohemians vs St Patrick’s Athletic: Defensive chess at Dalymount</h2> <p>Dalymount Park stages a pivotal Premier Division clash with European qualification implications as Bohemians (4th) welcome St Patrick’s Athletic (6th). The Oracle’s read: this has all the hallmarks of a controlled, low-event derby decided by the first goal.</p> <h3>Form and momentum</h3> <p>Bohemians arrive off back-to-back league defeats, most recently a 2-0 reverse at Galway United despite spells of control. Their eight-game trend shows a downturn (1.00 PPG, goals against up 41.5%), raising questions about defensive sharpness in recent weeks. Yet Dalymount has largely been a fortress this season (1.94 PPG, 44% clean sheets), and the home crowd typically amplifies their second-half surges.</p> <p>St Patrick’s are buoyant after a statement 1-0 win over leaders Shamrock Rovers—another data point in a strong last-eight run (2.13 PPG; just 0.50 GA per game). Away, however, they remain inconsistent: 1.13 PPG and just 0.88 scored per game. Crucially, their away equalizing rate is a stark 11%, indicating that falling behind on the road is often terminal.</p> <h3>Tactical battle: first goal and game-state control</h3> <p>Expect a compact mid-block from Pats built on athletic full-backs and midfield control from Chris Forrester, with Aidan Keena or Mason Melia offering penalty-area presence. Bohs rely on Dawson Devoy’s creativity between the lines, Ross Tierney’s third-man runs and Dayle Rooney’s delivery. The home side’s lead-defending is elite (77% at home), and St Pats’ struggles to overturn deficits away (<12% equalizers) make the opening goal disproportionately important.</p> <p>Bohemians typically grow into games—60% of home goals arrive after the break, with a notable 7:1 goal differential from minutes 76–90 at home. On a slick surface after light showers, late transitions and set pieces could again be decisive.</p> <h3>Why the market underrates a low scorer</h3> <ul> <li>BTTS rates: Bohs home 38%, Pats away 38%—well below league average (52%).</li> <li>Total goals: Bohs 2.33, Pats 2.18 per game vs 2.45 league; both trend under.</li> <li>Clean sheet potential: Bohs 44% at home; Pats fail to score in 38% of away games.</li> <li>Recent H2H flavor: 0-0 in July; narrow wins both ways earlier this season.</li> </ul> <p>Bookmakers still price BTTS No at 1.91 (implied ~52%), while the data points closer to 60–62%. It’s the standout value. The under 2.25 (1.95) is a strong complementary play, allowing a half-win on exactly two goals—a common landing zone in this rivalry context.</p> <h3>Players and matchups to watch</h3> <p>For Bohemians, Devoy dictates with 51 key passes and is the most likely to unlock Pats from dead balls or slips between lines; Tierney’s timing into the box is another edge. Whelan is a live finisher if starting. For Pats, Forrester’s tempo and Keena’s movement are the main threats; Melia’s form spike makes him a potential impact sub or starter. Full-back zones will be pivotal: if Bohs pin Pats’ wide men, the away side’s counter lanes shrink and chances dry up.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s predicted texture</h3> <p>A tense, tactical encounter that rewards discipline. Bohs’ home trends and late push could shade the key moments, while Pats’ improved structure keeps it cagey. With both teams defending their boxes better than league average and a heavy tilt to unders/BTTS-no in the splits, margins look razor-thin.</p> <p>Most plausible scripts: 0-0 into halftime; a single second-half goal decides it. If Bohs strike first, their lead-defending and Pats’ away equalizing history make a home 1-0 a live outcome. Conversely, if Pats pinch the opener, a 0-1 grind is equally feasible.</p> <h3>Best bets summary</h3> <ul> <li>BTTS No (1.91) – best value backed by both sides’ suppressed BTTS profiles.</li> <li>Under 2.25 (1.95) – leans into the derby’s low-event baseline with protection on two goals.</li> <li>Bohemians to score first (1.95) – 62% at home vs Pats’ low away equalizing rate.</li> <li>Bohemians clean sheet Yes (3.00) – price overshoots a realistic ~40% baseline.</li> <li>Correct score 1-0 Bohemians (6.50) – a recurring Dalymount scoreline in this game-state profile.</li> </ul> <p>Verdict: A close, defensive derby with the first goal worth gold. The Oracle leans Bohs by a whisker in a game that fits unders and BTTS-no angles.</p> </body> </html>
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