Karcag SE vs Csakvar
Match Information
Match Preview
<html> <head> <title>Karcag SE vs Csákvári TK – NB II Match Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Form and Context</h2> <p>Karcag SE welcome Csákvári TK to the Ligeti úti Sporttelep with both sides nestled in the top half after nine rounds. Karcag’s home start has been immaculate (3 wins from 3), while Csákvári arrive unbeaten in four but with three straight draws. The weather looks mild and dry around 15°C—good conditions for a clean game and tactical clarity.</p> <h2>The Numbers Behind the Matchup</h2> <p>Karcag’s home profile is the headline: 1.67 goals for and just 0.67 conceded per game, 67% clean sheets, and crucially, they’ve scored first in every home match. The hosts’ last eight show a positive trajectory—points per game up 12.6% and goals for up 13.1% on season norms. Csákvári’s overall defence is among the league’s better units (0.78 GA per game, 56% clean sheets), but their attack has cooled over the last eight (-21.5% goals), and away they’ve been draw-heavy with volatility in totals.</p> <p>Game-state metrics loom large: both teams average <em>zero</em> points when conceding first. Karcag’s ability to score first at home and defend leads (75% lead-defending rate at home) tilts the risk-reward balance towards the hosts—especially with Csákvári holding just a 33% away lead-defending rate.</p> <h2>Goal Timing and Tactical Flow</h2> <p>Karcag trend slightly stronger after the break at home (60% of goals after HT), with late winners already on the ledger. Csákvári’s hallmark this season has been a late scoring burst (four goals between 76–90 across all venues) but only <strong>two</strong> goals conceded in second halves overall—indicative of controlled, low-event game states. Early caution from both managers is a reasonable expectation; half-time draws sit at 56% for Karcag (overall) and 60% for Csákvári away.</p> <h2>Key Players to Watch</h2> <p>Karcag spread the goals: Aron Girsik (penalties) and Félix Sághy provide incision, while Tamás Szekszárdi and Z. Pap have supplied timely contributions. For Csákvári, Zoltán Derekas (brace at Kecskemét), Kevin Mondovics, Z. Magyar (set-pieces/pen), and András Simon form a balanced threat. With no headline injuries reported, expect both managers to trust their established structures—Karcag leveraging compact home spacing and set-piece execution; Csákvári prioritizing shape and counter-moments.</p> <h2>Market View and Value</h2> <p>Prices suggest a finely-balanced contest, but the venue tilt matters. Karcag’s moneyline around 2.25 feels fair; the Asian -0.25 at 2.02 offers a modest edge by protecting part of the stake against the high draw probability. The best value sits on BTTS No at 2.05. Karcag’s 67% home clean-sheet rate and 33% home BTTS yes clash with the market’s weighting of Csákvári’s 60% away BTTS yes. Given Csákvári’s recent attacking regression and Karcag’s control when leading, the BTTS No price looks rich.</p> <p>Ancillary angles center on first-goal dynamics. With Karcag 100% to score first at home and both teams struggling when behind, “Karcag to score first” at 1.83 is sensible. If you like a higher price, “Karcag win to nil” at 4.05 aligns with the match script and outcome clustering (two 1-0 home wins already). Correct score backers can nibble 1-0 at 9.00—the modal Karcag home result thus far.</p> <h2>Prediction</h2> <p>Expect a measured first half and a home-led game state once the deadlock breaks. Karcag’s home pattern—first goal, low concessions, and tidy lead management—should persist unless Csákvári produce an uncommon away breakthrough. The most likely patterns are 1-0 or 2-0 to Karcag, with the draw live at half-time.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Pick</h3> <p>Primary: BTTS – No at 2.05. Secondary leans: Karcag -0.25 (2.02); HT Draw (2.20); Karcag to score first (1.83). Longshot value: Karcag win to nil (4.05); Correct Score 1-0 (9.00).</p> </body> </html>
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