Ujpest vs Zalaegerszegi TE
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<html> <head><title>Újpest vs Zalaegerszegi TE: Form clash in Budapest</title></head> <body> <h2>Form and stakes</h2> <p>Mid-table rivals Újpest and Zalaegerszegi TE meet at the Szusza Ferenc Stadion with both sides chasing momentum before winter. ZTE sit 8th (19 pts), Újpest 10th (16 pts), and recent sentiment frames this as a balanced, high-importance fixture for mid-season positioning.</p> <h3>Újpest: Home inconsistency under scrutiny</h3> <p>Despite a proud history, Újpest’s home metrics this season are poor: just 0.71 points per game at their own ground, only one win in seven, and no clean sheets. They do create enough to keep matches open (71% of home games see Over 2.5 and BTTS), but the inability to protect a lead (home lead-defending rate 33%) has cost them points. Recent results reflect the volatility: a classy 1–3 win at DVTK and a 1–3 upset at Paks were offset by heavy defeats, including a 0–3 home loss to Győr and a 3–0 defeat away to Kisvárda.</p> <p>Aljoša Matko is the bright spot. With seven league goals and a string of recent strikes, he’s the reference point for the home attack, supported by Iuri Medeiros’ set plays and the running of Krisztofer Horváth. The back line (João Nunes, André Duarte, Davit Kobouri) has height and dueling ability, but the collective numbers haven’t clicked at home.</p> <h3>Zalaegerszegi TE: Defensive uptick and late punch</h3> <p>ZTE’s form curve is rising: 3 consecutive league wins, all to nil, and five wins in their last eight. Crucially, they’ve been decisive late in games, with winning goals in the final 15 minutes and a season-long tendency to do damage after the break (70% of their goals arrive in the second half). Goalkeeper Bence Gundel-Takács’ command has underpinned the clean-sheet run.</p> <p>Alen Skribek is the headline attacker. He’s delivered in big moments against DVTK, Debrecen and even away at Ferencváros; his movement between the lines suits ZTE’s counter-attacking passages. João Victor’s ball carrying and foul winning help pin opponents back in transition.</p> <h3>Tactical picture: Cagey start, open finish?</h3> <p>The first half profiles suggest caution: ZTE have drawn four of seven away first halves (57%), and Újpest are level at the break in 43% at home. Expect compact midfields early, with Újpest probing via Medeiros and Matko while ZTE set traps to spring Skribek and João Victor on the turnover.</p> <p>After the interval, the game should open. Újpest concede a larger share of goals in the second half at home (58%), while ZTE save their best for later. Substitutions for ZTE often add fresh legs and directness, giving them the edge as the game state becomes stretched.</p> <h3>Where the value hides</h3> <p>Market pricing leans into a traditional home bias, making Újpest favourites despite the weak home record. That’s where the value case for ZTE not to lose emerges. A first-half draw aligns with both teams’ level-time profiles. Highest scoring half the second supports ZTE’s late surge and Újpest’s post-HT vulnerability. Total goals trends (both teams showing 71% on Over 2.5 in the relevant venue splits) argue for overs, though punters should acknowledge ZTE’s recent clean-sheet bounce.</p> <h3>Key battles and players</h3> <ul> <li>Matko vs ZTE back line: The league form forward against an improving defence. If Matko finds pockets centrally, he can tilt the game.</li> <li>Skribek in transition vs Újpest’s right channel: The away winger’s timing on counters is ZTE’s best route to a decisive chance.</li> <li>Set pieces: Újpest’s delivery (Medeiros) can test ZTE in dead-ball phases; conversely, ZTE’s late corners and wide free-kicks have created pressure in the last three matches.</li> </ul> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>The Oracle sees a tight first half and a more open second. ZTE’s form and late-game punch give them a strong chance to avoid defeat, while the goal environment leans slightly over the 2.5 line. If there’s a match-winner, Skribek’s form and Újpest’s home defensive profile make the away side’s wide channels a critical zone.</p> </body> </html>
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