Puskas Academy vs Ujpest

<div> <h2>Puskás Akadémia vs Újpest FC: Data, Edges and What To Expect</h2> <p>Pancho Aréna hosts a compelling early-season NB I clash where Puskás Akadémia target the European places again and Újpest continue their rebuild under a new coach. With neither camp reporting major injuries by mid-week and fair weather forecasted, this should be decided by clear stylistic patterns: Puskás’ second-half punch versus Újpest’s capacity to strike first away from home.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Puskás arrive after a rough fortnight (0-2 vs Győr, 2-3 at Paks) but still sit 6th, mirroring their last-8 form. Újpest are 8th, drawing 2-2 with Nyíregyháza after a flat away loss at Kazincbarcika. Despite the modest samples (8 games), both teams’ current metrics align with their table position, which lends confidence that trends are meaningful and not pure noise.</p> <h3>Venue Split and Game State Trends</h3> <p>Puskás at home are high-variance: 1.50 PPG, 1.50 GF and 2.00 GA per game, with Over 2.5 hitting 75% and zero clean sheets. Újpest on the road post a solid 1.33 PPG with 1.67 GF, 1.33 GA; however, their Over 2.5 rate away is only 33%. The razor edge tilts towards goals mainly because Puskás home matches trend high-scoring and both teams rarely keep clean sheets.</p> <p>Crucially, Puskás concede first early at home (average minute 20) and have allowed the opener in 75% of home matches. Újpest have scored first in 67% of their away games. This is the central tactical hinge: if Újpest land the first blow, their away ppg when scoring first is 2.00, while when they concede first away, they take 0.00 ppg. Puskás do recover better at home (1.00 ppg when conceding first), so a fightback is plausible—but the first goal remains the best predictor.</p> <h3>Goal Timing: Expect the Late Show</h3> <p>Puskás save most of their scoring for after the interval (67% of goals overall; 83% at home). They also wobble late: 5 goals conceded from 76–90 minutes (3 at home). Újpest away have 60% of their goals in the second half and have struck in stoppage time already this season. The overlap is compelling: a strong chance of a late away goal and a lively second half.</p> <h3>Key Players to Watch</h3> <p>For Puskás, Dániel Lukács is in form with 4 league goals from 7, accounting for a third of the team’s tally. His movement off Németh and the wide supply from Soisalo/Dárdai plus Favorov’s line-breaking passes are Puskás’ primary routes. Újpest’s main threats are Aljoša Matko (3 league goals), the creativity of Iuri Medeiros, and the physical presence of Brodić/Tučic. In the back, André Duarte and João Nunes have stabilized Újpest’s spine, but clean sheets are still elusive.</p> <h3>Tactical Picture</h3> <p>We expect Újpest’s improved off-ball structure and higher press to create early turnovers and transitional shots—especially against a Puskás side that has started halves slowly. As the match opens up in the second half, Puskás’ direct runners and box presence tend to take over, with set-play value through Stronati/Golla and crosses angled at Lukács/Colley.</p> <h3>Markets and Edges</h3> <ul> <li>Újpest to score first is the standout value given Puskás’ 75% rate of conceding the opener at home and Újpest’s 67% rate of scoring first away.</li> <li>BTTS remains a solid anchor; Puskás’ BTTS is 88% overall and 75% at home with a 0% clean-sheet rate.</li> <li>Away 2nd-half 0.5+ goals gains support from Puskás’ late concessions and Újpest’s late scoring habits.</li> <li>First-half Draw/Újpest DC leverages the fact Puskás have yet to lead at HT at home.</li> </ul> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>Expect an early Újpest punch with the match’s tempo and chance quality rising after half-time. Puskás’ forward form—particularly Lukács—keeps them competitive on the scoreboard, reinforcing BTTS. The numbers point to Újpest striking first, a busy second half, and a high likelihood of both teams netting.</p> </div>